Corona - Statistics & Lies

I have a real problem with statistics which goes way beyond my general lack of facility with maths. I just think that the Covid 19 Pandemic shows really clearly that it's impossible to understand the raw numbers we are currently given because there isn't enough context.

If I am to comprehend whether Covid 19 is a huge threat to me & be able to compare different countries methods of dealing with it, then I need a lot more information than we are given. It's just no good only telling me how many people have had it & how many have died. I need to know:-

• The Total Population per Country - probably broken down by Age, by Area, by Employed / Unemployed
• The Total Normal Annual Death Rate - probably broken down by Condition
• The Total Deaths by Covid 19 - Compared to Total Survival rate - Broken down into ICU & Intubation graduating down to No / Few Symptoms. 
• The Total Deaths from other main Diseases.

Just repeating the same mantras daily in the Government briefings is boring & unhelpful. A Cabinet Spokesman bookended by two "Experts" doesn't do it for me. How many people have the time, knowledge or inclination to research into the figures for themselves?

 

If you try, as I have, you realise how difficult it is to get comparable statistics & reach any conclusions. That means that probably we haven't been in the habit of collecting & collating the correct statistics. They simply aren't available for the UK & certainly not for the world. Ranking countries by death from Covid 19 is a nonsense - Some Governments lie or just don't have the information.

This is what I found:-

Population - England - 55,977,178
                      Scotland - 5,454,000
                      Ireland - 4,904,000
                      Wales - 3,136,000
In Employment - England - 32,540,000
                              Scotland - 4,000,000
                              Ireland - 2,280,000
                              Wales - 1,500,000
Over 65 - England - 10,175,253
                 Scotland - 1,026,114
                 Ireland - 675,149
                 Wales - 651,993

Total Annual Deaths  -  England & Wales - 533,253 (2017)
                                        Scotland - 58,503 (2018)
                                        Ireland - 31,116 (2018)

Total UK Deaths by Covid 19 - 34,716 - 244,995 cases - 210,279 survived
                                                     86% lived / 14% died
Any death is regrettable & causes immense suffering, but why has all the rhetoric accentuated only the negative stats? Is 14% a much higher death rate than for other diseases?

Total Deaths from Chronic Heart Disease -  110,000 deaths in England each year. More than 1.4 million suffer from angina and 275,000 people have a heart attack annually. Heart and circulatory diseases cause more than a quarter (27 per cent) of all deaths in the UK; that's nearly 170,000 deaths each year - an average of 460 people each day or one death every three minutes.

Total UK Deaths from Cancer in the UK - There are around 165,000 cancer deaths in the UK every year, that's around 450 every day (2015-2017). Cancer accounts for more than a quarter (28%) of all deaths in the UK (2017).

I tried to get the most up to date figures. The trouble with statistics is that there doesn't seem to be an agreed, standardised, method across the UK, never mind about worldwide.

Make of this what you will. All I'm saying is we are not getting the full picture. Covid 19 is undoubtedly a terrible virus, but we need perspective to make choices for ourselves & do our own personal risk assessment.

Corona - Propaganda & Spin Doctors.

This became probably my longest Blog - No Apologies - I became more & more interested & concerned as I researched it.

Propaganda - information that is biased or is used in such a way that it misleads the targeted individual, in turn motivating them to think or act a certain way. The "deliberate, systematic attempt to shape perceptions, manipulate cognitions, and direct behaviour to achieve a response that furthers the desired intent of the propagandist. Manipulation of public opinion can be organized or unorganized, conscious or unconscious, politically or socially motivated. Propagandists use arguments that, while sometimes convincing, are not necessarily valid.

Propagandists - use the media for transmitting their messages including news reports, government reports, historical revision, junk science, books, leaflets, cinema, social media, radio, television, and posters. Sometimes they use public figures. Propaganda campaigns often follow a transmission pattern to indoctrinate the target group.

There are standard methods of disseminating propaganda:-

• Attacking one's opponent - as opposed to attacking their arguments.
• Tireless repetition - of an idea.
• Agenda setting -  covering a news item frequently and prominently means the audience will regard the issue as more important.
• Using Prominent figures - to support a position, idea, argument, or course of action.
• Appeals to fear - build support by instilling anxieties and panic in the general population.
• Using Prejudice - using loaded or emotive terms to attach value or moral goodness to believing the proposition
• Bandwagons - persuading the audience that there will be inevitable-victory in an attempt to persuade the audience to join in and take the course of action that everyone else is taking.
• The Big Lie - repetition of a complex of events that justify subsequent action.
• Black & White Fallacy - presenting only two choices - "you're with us or against us"
• Truth or Lie - the brilliant propagandist tells the truth, or the part of it necessary for his purpose.
• Cognitive Dissonance & Conditioning - peoples desire for consistency.
• The Common Man - attempts to convince the audience that the message reflects the common sense of the people.
• Personality Cult - an individual uses mass media to create an idealized and heroic public image.
• Dictat - simplify decision making telling the audience exactly what actions to take, eliminating any other possible choices.  
• Disinformation - creation or deletion of information.

NB - With thanks to Wikipedia.

Spin Doctors - Public relations advisors, pollsters and media consultants who develop deceptive or misleading messages. Their job is to reframe or modify the perception of an issue or event to reduce any negative impact it might have on public opinion. They use a wide range of covert tactics for their political masters:-

• the leak: these are strategic leaks offered by politicians or their staff to journalists, in exchange for no scrutiny. In other words, you only get the leak if you promise not to seek comment from the opposing side, or other critics. This is increasing and is a real problem
• the freeze: punishing journalists for negative reporting
• the spray: a form of bullying and intimidation, this is another way of punishing journalists for negative coverage. Many political reporters who file an unfavourable story can expect to “cop a spray” over the phone after it’s published
• the drip: the act of keeping favoured reporters on a drip of exclusive information
• staying on message: the goal of every public appearance or interview by a politician. In itself, it’s not a malign tactic, but the constant repetition of the same messages without answering questions can be a form of obfuscation
• pivoting: this refers to politicians shifting away from a difficult question or issue to the one he or she wants to talk about
• the vomit principle: this rule of thumb is widely referred to in political offices. The idea is that if you repeat something so often you feel like vomiting, only then is it likely to be cutting through with the public
• playing a dead bat: this refers to not responding to a media inquiry or giving a minimal response in an effort to kill the story
• the truth, but not the whole truth: this refers to being selective with what one reveals, sharing only the most beneficial or least damaging information
• throwing out the bodies/taking out the garbage: these tactics are used to disclose damaging information under the cover of a major distraction. The classic example often used is that of Jo Moore, a media adviser in the Blair government in the UK. On the day of the 9/11 attacks she sent out an email saying “It is now a very good day to get out anything we want to bury. Councillors expenses?” Other common days to bury bad news are Christmas Eve, New Year’s Eve, grand final day, Melbourne Cup day, or a distraction like a royal visit
• get rid of it now: the aim of this tactic is to release all of the damaging information on an issue at one time, so the negative story can be dealt with quickly rather than allowing it to bleed on for weeks in the media. One media adviser I interviewed explained it like this: “It’s a truism in politics - If you’ve got to eat a shit sandwich you’ve got to eat it straight away… The advice was always, ‘Get rid of it now. Go and deal with it now’.”
• fire-breaking: setting up or staging a diversion to distract attention away from another issue. In the film "Wag the Dog" the US president fabricates a war in Albania to distract from a sex scandal. Less extreme examples would be launching a new policy to distract from a negative issue in an attempt to shift the media’s attention
• kite-flying: this means testing or floating an idea before making a commitment to announce it
• feeding or starving a story: feeding a story means keeping it alive by commenting on it in the media. Starving a story means starving it of oxygen by not commenting on it. The theory being that after a while the media will get bored and move on
• keeping out of the media/being a small target: this is a useful tactic if the politician is unpopular and affects the polls, has a controversial portfolio or is an accident-prone poor performer
• flying under the radar: this refers to just quietly getting on with things without publicising it
• dishing dirt: this is where old claims suddenly emerge publicly before or during an election in an effort to smear someone’s reputation. The “dirt” can come from outside or inside a party. It’s a tactic used to try to destroy someone’s career
• dog-whistling: using specific subtle language and messages to target a particular section of the audience
• wedging: this tactic involves raising an issue that is popular in the electorate and sensitive to the party you are opposing to “wedge” them in to a difficult position and sow division in the party.
  
  NB - With thanks to "The Conversation"
  
  If any of this sounds familiar I hope you will be as worried as I am. 

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Corona - Change & Books

This has been one of the most radical changes in my daily routine in the whole of my life. I only go out as far as my carport to put the rubbish out, or stand in the doorway, at the appropriate distance, to talk to people who visit. I am communicating a lot more via phone, text, email & Zoom. I have no physical contact with anyone at all. I have lost  the comfort boosting effect of hugging.
https://www.healthline.com/health/hugging-benefits#3
Apparently a good hug should last for 20 seconds. A hug a day keeps the doctor away!

Currently I'm reading two books simultaneously. It's good to be trasported to another persons world during isolation & I love crime fiction. So Donna Leon's "Earthly Remains" has taken me to the Venetian Laguna & the life of "Puparin" rowers on the water. It is also a comparison between the simple rural life of the outer Venetian islands in comparison to the urban city life of Brunetti the detective.

 

The second book is "A New Earth"  by Eckhart Tolle. This is all about change of a different kind. The change we should consider making in ourselves & the world we live in. This is a very apposite message in the "Time of Corona". "We all think too much, seek too much, want too much & forget the joy of just being". We should "let go of fear, anxiety & the eternal quest for more". It tackles the current state of humanity. If there is one thing that Covid 19 is giving us it is the chance to think & to change.

The Corona virus is an opportunity. It has catapulted us into a strange new reality. I've no idea whether this is a grand "Master Plan" of the universe or simply yet another of Man's "cock ups". Probably the latter. Whatever! - we should welcome the opportunities for change we have been given.

Corona - An afternoon in A&E

Yesterday I had first hand experience of life in a major hospital during Coronavirus.

I've been having problems with double vision & headaches for a couple of weeks. I did my surgery online triage form which said I should phone 111. The phone responder triaged me again & got a doctor to call me back. He said to go to A&E within an hour despite the fact I haven't been out for 5 weeks now. All very dramatic, although in all honesty I didn't think it would be something very serious.

Getting into A&E reception is very different now. There were two people at the entrance who told me to sanitize my hands & said that no visitors were allowed in. I had to stand at a taped distance from where they were sitting. My daughter had brought me & we agreed she would go home. There were a few questions about possible Covid 19 infection & then I went in. At the reception desk the receptionist was behind a glass screen & I stood behind a barrier while he typed my details into the computer. I was given a personalised wristband & told to sit in the waiting area. There were 3 other people there, all sitting a long way from eachother.

After a wait I was called into a big triage room where the nurse asked a battery of questions & gave me an ECG. I was then taken to another area to wait for a doctor. The doctor took me to a cubicle where he asked a lot of questions & did a lot of Neuro tests. At the end he reassuringly told me that I hadn't had a stroke, didn't have a bleed on the brain or an aneurism - Thank goodness! He didn't know what was causing it because he wasn't a specialist, but said I should contact the Neurologist I am under & get an appointment because my symptoms have worsened considerably.

All the way through everything was calm & well managed. Everyone seemed very competent, purposeful & confident. People seemed very cheerful & jolly even. I made a point of thanking them all for what they are doing, but they all said the same - "It's my job".

That's the NHS we need to fund properly & protect. Those are the people we need to be everlastingly grateful to & reward properly financially. That is the organisation that we should be staffing adequately & ensuring that we keep the expertise our training gives them in house. Their morale is crucial.

Politicians meddle with that at their peril.

Corona - "Is this the real life" - Queen

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jFKBR1ggTMY

"Is this the real life? Is this just fantasy?
Caught in a landslide, no escape from reality
Open your eyes, look up to the skies and see
I'm just a poor boy, I need no sympathy
Because I'm easy come, easy go, little high, little low
Any way the wind blows doesn't really matter to me, to me"

We often talk about "quality of life" being important. At the moment many people worldwide have little of it for a myriad of different reasons. I can only speak for myself.

There is no doubt that this is "the real life". It isn't a life I would chose, but there are benefits amid the many things I don't have.

I don't have freedom - to leave the house, to hug someone I love, to have face to face conversations with family, friends & aquaintances. The choices I can make are limited - I can't go for a walk or swim, visit friends & family, shop for myself... The property market is dead in the water, so I can't sell my house & move on. I'm in limbo not knowing how long this will last & what will happen at the end point. The only thing I do know is that it will eventually end, but life as we all knew it will be changed.

The benefits are subtle. The chance to catch up with things my former really busy life didn't give me time to do - things I let slide. The chance to spend time with myself & discover how well I can cope with that. Most people are co-dependent, so being deprived of social contact is very hard. Actually, I haven't found it too difficult. There is a huge difference between lonliness & solitude. The chance to think - about things that really matter, not just the minutiae of everyday life. Why are we here, how should we behave, what are our responsibilities to ourselves, others, our planet? Our previous lives were so manic - we all have the opportunity to reflect now.

Maybe this will be the catalyst which delivers us from our own self interested behaviours. Maybe the sacrifice & community spirit so many have found will empower us to build a better future for our children. The Corona Spring could be a proper new beginning.

Corona - Poverty, Volunteers & Carers

Corona is a health catastrophe, but it impacts different areas of society in different ways apart from the physical. Poverty makes coping with Corona much harder & many more people are going to be experiencing poverty & hardship than previously. 14% of people have lost their job or had their hours reduced in the UK according to YouGov. That's 1 in 20. 1 in 11 have had pay or hours reduced. Almost 500,000 people applied for Universal Credit in March. Then there is the impact on the self employed, which is being researched currently.

While foodbanks are trying to cope with as much as an 80% increase in takeup, they are also having to deal with a huge drop in donations. In addition they are having to tell mostly aged Volunteers to stay at home for their own safety.

In America 15,000,000, yes 15,000,000 people have had their water cut off because they can't pay their bills. America for goodness sake, which is the world's biggest economy with a GDP of $20,494,100 (China is closest with $13,608,152). In the USA 38.1 million people lived in poverty in 2018 that's 11.8%. As of 2017 20% of UK people live in poverty. Covid 19 is set to make that rise.

Volunteering is hugely important to economies. In the UK:-

• In 2017/18, 30% of people aged 25–34 formally volunteered at least once a year, and 15% at least once a month (regularly), the lowest across different age groups.
• The highest rates of volunteering can be found among 65–74 year olds, with 42% at least once a year, and 29% regularly.  
• Women are more likely than men to have formally volunteered (40% vs 35%)

Social distancing & self isolating obviously means that workforce, which keeps our society ticking over, has largely disappeared.

Then there are the Carers:-

• There are around seven million Carers in the UK  – that is one in ten people.
• Three in five people will be Carers at some point in their lives in the UK.
• 42% of Carers are men and 58% are women. 
• The economic value of the contribution made by Carers in the UK is £132bn a year
• As many as one in five children and young people are young Carers

The economy literally probably couldn't function without Carers, who are unpaid & largely unsupported by Government. Just think how many Carers are living in unimaginably difficult circumstances in this pandemic.

As the weeks drag on the implications of Covid 19 become more & more obvious & widespread. It is truly a virus in more ways than one. It's tentacles are spreading not just through bodies, but through the very fabric of our communities & society. It's destroying our networks. Hopefully we will replace them with something better.

   

It's a huge web of consequences with the Corona spider at it's core.

Corona - My New Normal

There really is no way I can describe my life, almost 4 weeks into complete solitary isolation in my house, as "normal".

I am part of a research study into the effects of lock down. I have to report in every week & do the same online questionnaire. I think I am coping very well, but I could be delusional! The hardest part is knowing that I am only a third of the way through lockdown. What will I do when there is nowhere else to tidy out, no more accumulated paperwork to shred?

If friends ask what I have been doing I am hard pushed to give much of an answer - that is "normal" for me though. I do know that I am never bored & I am always busy. I'm now thinking that I should make a timetable with varied activities. I'm very "task oriented", so up to now I have been doing "jobs" I hadn't got round to. I need more variety in the day.

I need to programme in the "normal" day to day routines - housework (such as it is), being online & making contact with friends, meals. Then I should make time for playing the piano, doing some sort of exercise to replace swimming, reading (all those books I have bought but not read), doing something intellectual & doing something creative. Otherwise there won't be enough to nourish all parts of my body & brain. I will age & wither away.

This is a test of ones inner resources. It's a test of control over emotion. There is no point in railing against enforced isolation. There is no point in any self pity. This is reality for now. It is what it is - we all have to get on with it & do our best to support & help others. We have to keep going & hope for better times to come.

This "New Normal" could be very beneficial - for each one of us, for society & for our world. We need to sieze the opportunities for a "Brave New Wold".