Seeing is Believing & Willful Blindness

We are having the 5th almost consecutive heatwave in the UK this week. July has been the sunniest month on record for the UK, as well as the driest July on record for England and Wales.There have so far been 33 days this year when temperatures have exceeded 30C in the UK. This week, it is likely the record of 34 days, set in 1995, will be broken. For the first time ever, a temperature of 35C has also been recorded somewhere in the UK in the three consecutive months of May, June and July - August will join that list by the end of this week. Wisley in Surrey is now up to 52 days without recording any rain - This could easily rise to 60 days with no rain the forecast across southern England. (Source BBC)

The first heatwave was in late May - Amber - Max temp 35.1 The 2nd started in mid June - Amber / Red - Max temp 38 The 3rd & 4th were most of July - Amber - Max temp 35.5 

The impact on so many areas of life has been obvious;- 

• Excess deaths 2,877 in May & June alone.
• Severe drought conditions in all of Wales & half of England, affecting water supply, (reservoirs & rivers at critical levels), & farming in particular.
• Severe soil moisture deficit (SMD) caused clay-based railway embankments to shrink, disturbing track geometry and creating rail buckling risks across the national network.
• Exceptionally severe wildfire hazards, forcing fire and rescue services to keep personnel deployed on prolonged, multi-day damping-down operations at recent burn sites. 
• NFU predict very poor yields of cereals & a shortage of grass & winter feed for animals.

We can all clearly see & feel what is happening. There is no escaping the impact on our daily lives. At a basic level the heat impacts our ability to function effectively. Hot & humid weather affects people mentally & physically. Sleep is difficult. Productivity drops. Records are regularly being broken.

To me it seems obvious, man made climate change is here. Now. We may well be at or even past the tipping point. Earth Overshoot Day was July 30th. This date marks when humanity's resource consumption for the year exceeds Earth's capacity to regenerate those resources, meaning we live in ecological deficit spending for the rest of the year. Humanity currently uses nature 73% faster than ecosystems can renew, requiring 1.73 Earths. In 1971 Overshoot Day was December 31st. As our consumption grows the date moves earlier & earlier.

 https://overshoot.footprintnetwork.org/

    

It isn't rocket science. Many of the commodities & resources we take for granted are finite e.g. fossil fuels, metal ores, minerals & rocks, nuclear fuels, freshwater (aquifers replenish slower than extraction rates, drought obviously makes this worse). These cannot renew & population growth increases demand.

I am not a scientist but all of this is clear to me. I can see it & I believe it. I don't understand the mindset of climate change deniers. It can't be that they are all below median intelligence. Surely they can't all be so fixated on their own immediate needs & oblivious to the very real probability that we are leaving an unbearable & unlivable inheritance to our children & grandchildren?  

There are none so blind as those who will not see - Jeremiah 5:21   

 

Justice, Joint Enterprise & Early Release

The case of PC Andrew Harper is distressing & emotive & is causing debate in light of the Early Release Scheme due to prison overcrowding. In 2019 Harper was killed when responding to a burglary, (theft of a quad bike). 3 young men, (one 18 the driver & two 17 year old minors) were found guilty of manslaughter & were given 16 & 13 year sentences. A 21 year old was also charged with conspiracy to steal. Only the driver pleaded guilty to manslaughter. The sentences were reviewed and upheld.

The 2 younger passengers are eligible for early release under the Early Release Scheme. Unsurprisingly this has created much discussion about this case in particular & wider issues regarding criminals whose actions result in the death of any police officer or first responder.

I discussed this with friends over coffee this week & also with a different friend afterwards. There were very differing points of view. 

What happened to PC Harper & the impact on his family, friends & colleagues cannot be overstated. But the issues raised are at the least interesting legally.

The crux of one point of view is - could the passengers actually have stopped the driver continuing? The view of my coffee morning group was yes passengers can speak up, but they can't safely physically grab the controls because they could cause a crash & endanger life. If the boys warned the driver & he ignored them that makes his actions more serious. If they encouraged him that makes them legally liable too. I haven't found any evidence as to where the boys were sitting in the car front or back. If they were in the back it seems unlikely they could do much physically. I also wonder what evidence there was as to whether they encouraged him or did tell him about Harper & tell him to stop. I don't know whether or when they were all aware that Harper was being dragged. I have since seen the footage of the two boys attitude on TV which was appalling & did them no favours. 

My other friends point of view is that all three of the boys were equally responsible. So basically, as in murder, it was joint enterprise. This allows more than one person to be charged with a crime even if only one person directly did the harmful act. The others helped, encouraged or planned the crime. Again I haven't found anything to support or deny this idea. My assumption would be that all three must have planned the theft of the quad bike, but the killing of PC Harper was not murder because it was not premeditated & planned. It was a dreadful accident. The important element is if & when the boys all knew Harper was being dragged & what, if anything they did about it once they knew. 

 

I wish I knew more. But more importantly I think that in order for the public to make an informed decision on the idea of Early Release for criminals like this, they need to know much more of the background to the crime. Much of what we are seeing on TV & in the media is lacking in any detail other than the very sad & emotional bare bones. 

Our prison system is frighteningly close to collapse & has been in an appalling state for years. I resigned from the Independent Monitoring Board of Gloucester prison in 2013. So I know that for a fact. Privatisation was coming into the system & things went downhill from there. There have been decades of underfunding & mismanagement in the justice system. We are now seeing the results of that.

I was also a magistrate for years, so have some understanding of the whole justice system. My conclusion at the end of my time was that there is a lot of law, but not an equivalent amount of justice. The UK locks far too many people up. England, Wales & Scotland have the highest per capita rates in Western Europe compared to nations favouring rehabilitation and community alternatives.

There are always alternatives & different ways of doing things. The UK really needs to examine the justice in our justice system.  

 

Dogmatism, Dialogue & Politics.

It is so easy to see things in black & white terms. There is only one god & it's mine, not yours. You are deluded & will not go to heaven. I have been saved & will. Some politicians are convinced their party has the only workable policies. I watch someone on the far right like Zia Yusuf for example & despair. The arrogance & bombast precludes any semblance of listening to a different point of view. The mantra seems to be shout louder & over the top of anyone disagreeing. Interrupt anyone voicing a different view. Steamroller your opinion into prominence. No semblance of dialogue.

 

It is important to have conviction politicians. It is important that they believe in their policies. As long as those policies are backed up by evidence & have been properly researched. But policies also need to be inclusive, in the interests of the people as a whole, across the strata of the public. They should not benefit a particular group, unless it it to redress an unfair imbalance. 

Our education system values dialogue. Universities are based on tutorials & debating societies. My friendship groups are interesting because they are made up of such a diverse selection of people - different age groups, different ethnicities, male & female, different religions & none, different political affiliations, different financial situations.... But the thing I value most is that I can disagree with friends & still value them & remain on good terms. Sometimes they actually do persuade me to change my mind. (Not a lot though! It's taken me 81 years to really know what I think, what is important to me)

I worry we are losing the ability as a society to value difference. We are becoming more & more polarised both as a society & as individuals. There are far more grey areas, far more nuances, than we allow for. Circumstances change. We really need to listen more & be prepared to change our opinions. We need to understand that our opinions are simply thoughts our brain has created. They should not be set in stone. Our brains are fallible & make mistakes. 

Mistakes are good, so long as we learn from them. Changing your mind is acceptable. Your mind is not pre eminent. Others might well be better. You are not omnipotent, whether you are a low paid worker or a multi millionaire. 

Waiting Lists

When I was young I was very impatient. I was a person of lists & priorities. I was very organised & believed that I could do things better than anyone else. How self confident, how arrogant. But it did get me to the top of my profession. I wasn't good at waiting though, even in supermarket queues. I made decisions & took action quickly. So I imagine some things could have been done better & mistakes were made. 

Now I am much more patient & tolerant. I have learned not to expect things to be done yesterday. Just as well because that isn't how today's society works. I seem to spend a disproportionate amount of time waiting for people to rectify their mistakes. Mistakes that frequently should not have happened in the first place. I could give you a list, but it would be very boring. But I resent the amount of my time it takes & I still naively have expectations that people will do their job properly.

The whole concept of a "waiting list" in healthcare seems to me to be unacceptable. Yes I know that the NHS need ever increasing amounts of money to meet today's needs. I also know that we need more medics & more hospital beds. Health & social care are inextricably linked so we need to sort that out too. However those problems have not appeared overnight. They are the result of decades of mismanagement, lack of effective communication & sharing of good practice, a hierarchy of fiefdoms that don't look at the patient holistically.....It's a behemoth & won't be sorted anytime soon. Especially as we are effectively bankrupt & there hasn't been the political will.

A waiting list sounds innocuous, but it isn't. A waiting list means patients trying to live with ill health, pain, fatigue & disability at home. It means patients gradually getting worse even past the point of recovery. It means family, friends even neighbours trying to care for someone who need professional care. Some will die.

 

Two personal examples, fortunately not life threatening. 

Last year I tore a tendon in my right hand. (I am right handed & live alone). It was excruciatingly painful. I couldn't move it or do anything with it & was terrified someone would bump into me. I was referred urgently to the "hand clinic". By the time the appointment finally came, months later, this year, my hand had recovered on it's own. I was told that "hand clinics" are the busiest orthopaedic clinics & routinely have very long wait lists. 

This year I have had bilateral Trochanteric Bursitis in my hips. The flare up of pain, fatigue & disability at it's acute worst meant I crawled upstairs on hands & feet, could not walk the 5 -10 minutes to my local shopping centre, could not stand for any length of time to prepare food & couldn't sit down & get up from a chair or turn over in bed without real pain. At it's mildest I am still very limited but it's bearable. Although the consultant put me on a cancellation list for ultrasound guided steroid injections into both hips, I know there is a 6 - 8 months waiting list.

I'm not going to die from any of this. I'm resilient & I can cope. My point is that although I am not in the worst waiting list situation, I do think this is unacceptable. And it is largely hidden. Because people on waiting lists have no choice, but to cope. 

Unless they can pay & that is against my principles. 

Parking, Pedestrians & Pavement Rage

Recently I got our city council to re-do the parking lines in my street. People were constantly parking over into the no parking area in front of my drive. When the culprits were big 4 WD's or vans it was impossible to see whether it was safe to exit into the road. The combination of drivers doing the same on the area opposite my driveway meant that I was effectively boxed in. The markings were faded, but frankly it was simply carelessness & complete indifference to the annoyance caused. Or maybe they are just bad drivers. 

When I walk to my local shopping area I can guarantee that there will be cars & vans parked overlapping the kerb & pavement. That combined with trees & shrubs overhanging the pavement from the gardens leaves little space for pedestrians. Even less for mums with pushchairs or people on mobility scooters or walkers. In the UK we have a crazy situation where whether this is illegal or not depends entirely on where you live. In London & Scotland it is completely illegal. In England & Wales it can be unlawful if local restrictions or obstruction rules apply.

 

I may be a grumpy old woman, but I have a simple mind. Law shouldn't be random, piecemeal & confusing. If this is wrong in London & Scotland why on earth is it acceptable in England & Wales? What are the factors that make a difference? Is it simply that vehicles matter more & pedestrians matter less in England & Wales? 

I am normally a peaceful person. But I am increasingly incensed by how little pedestrians are prioritised in our society today. Especially as demographically we are an ageing population. I often struggle to walk to the shops, but I don't want to lose my capability completely, so I do make an effort. Coping with the above as well as playing "chicken" with cyclists & scooterists on the pavement means that I feel more vulnerable than I should. 

So I have to admit I am tempted by pavement rage. I have obviously never "keyed" a vehicle or pushed a cyclist or scooterist over. But lurking in the depths of my "granny" persona there is a rebel who is seriously tempted. 

The real issue is that all of this is happening on a daily basis everywhere & it is being completely ignored. We are all habituated to it & have learned the skills of avoidance. There is no enforcement even if there is legislation. People get away with it all the time. 

I think we pedestrians should rise up & fight back with our mobile phones. We should flood local councils with photos of offenders showing vehicle reg plates & gardens overhanging pavements. We should complain & they should be forced to do something about it. I've even been tempted to go out with secateurs & throw the cuttings into the front gardens.  

Westminster - The Seat of Government?

I have quite strong views about this topic. I think they are very logical, but I know that they probably won't be universally popular.

For starters I think we should sell off the Houses of Parliament & permanently move the seat of government to somewhere more central in the UK. That would give us the opportunity to have a purpose built, much better designed, far less adversarial, setting for decision making. We need a circular design that isn't as sectarian. Just like Scotland & Wales. It seems to work very well there. I've mentioned before that the cross bench adversarial design of Westminster is anachronistic. England is stuck in the old hierarchical, class ridden, traditional past. This is the 21st century for goodness sake.   

 

I don't much care what we do with the current building - but I'm sure a good developer could make a lot of money & given that it's Grade 1 listed they won't be able to do anything that will detract from the building itself. There must be touristic opportunities, or a hotel or conference centre maybe. It is a big building, right on the Thames, in the centre of London after all.

Maybe number 10 North is designed to open our minds to such a possibility? Maybe Burnham is quite Machiavellian in his thinking? I do hope so. Because selling the H of P off would surely generate shedloads of money. So the new parliament would presumably be self funding, given the difference in house prices in London & "up North". As a real bonus we wouldn't have to pay the estimated cost of repair of between £11 - £40 billion the H of P needs right now.

But all of that, important though it is, isn't the main reason for my thinking. We must get rid of the so called "North South divide". We must start to think and act as a cohesive country with 4 semi independent states. We must acknowledge that currently there is a post code lottery & not all counties are the same - They all have distinctive characteristics. London & the South East must not be allowed to dominate politics & decision making. Devolved government works. The 14 Regional Mayors have been a really good decision. Great examples are - Greater Manchester, West Midlands, London & Tees Valley.

So whatever else I think about Andy Burnham, I'm hoping that his experience as mayor of Greater Manchester will mean that he is capable of not only seriously thinking about this, but actually doing it.

Then he can tackle our ridiculously unfair voting system.  

 

   

Autonomy & the Sandbox

Autonomy - self governing, independent, free to make choices. It embodies personal freedom, political self rule & workplace empowerment. It is very important if democracy is to survive.

Apparently the company behind Chat GPT has revealed that an autonomous agent powered by Chat GPT went rogue & hacked into a startup. They consider this to be unprecedented, but they also expect it to become more commonplace. Only the big brains of technology could make such a contradictory & worrying statement.

I can't believe they haven't thought this through. Surely it isn't just a question of the income generated for these companies? Surely they realise that allowing machines to be autonomous means the we won't be. 

The AI escaped from it's "sandbox". How cuddly & friendly that sounds. Just like my toddler when she was 3. Frankly I think it's deliberately misleading, to stop us from seriously considering the implications of this. 

It really doesn't matter whether there was malicious intent or not. The genie is out of the box & Pandora has opened it simultaneously. The tech brains are not in control & we certainly aren't. An unknown IT flaw is known as a zero day vulnerability. I think that says it all. Anthropic, the rival of Open AI, said it's Mythos has found thousands of these flaws. 44 incidents have been recorded in which AI acted against it's users intentions.

To be specific, autonomous AI might pursue assigned tasks using harmful or unintended methods. More worrying the machines might hide capabilities or bypass safety guardrails to achieve their goals. As has now already happened, advanced machines can break out of isolated testing environments & access the internet.

I hope this raises as much concern in you as it does in me. I certainly don't trust the various owners of  Open AI (Chat GPT). In my view they have already failed. I doubt the genie can be put back in the bottle now. Unfortunately they probably have enough arrogance & self confidence to think that they can. 

 

Are we really stupid enough to hand that over to a machine we don't control? Apparently so.