Reasons to be Cheerful

I'm not sure I can differentiate between cheerfulness & positivity. I think I am positive, but am not sure I am particularly cheerful. But here goes, in the order they occurred to me;-

• I am secure, at home & in the area & country in which I live
• I am free to voice my opinions in public
• I can vote freely without fear
• I have friends & family I can trust
• I can mostly rely on the basics of life - food, warmth, shelter, water (?), breathable air (?)
• I have reliable, unbiased, sources of information - (providing I fact check)
• I have reliable methods of communication with others - (at the moment)
• I have leisure activities & things to occupy & interest me
• I can be creative & appreciate the arts 

I'm sure I could think of more. I imagine you could too. It depends on what is important to you. 

 

There are lots of things I have that I don't particularly need. How lucky am I? We all have stuff. Periodically I clear out & try to simplify my life. My life isn't basic by any means, it is a rich life. Not necessarily in monetary terms, although I am financially secure too.

What is the point of this post?

The point is that there are far more people who don't have the reasons to be cheerful than I do. 72% of people  live in countries facing biological resource deficits combined with below-world-average incomes, trapping large portions of the globe in ecological poverty. 72% of people face water security issues, with about 8% living with critical water insecurity. 43% of the world feels they can do nothing to protect themselves when facing a disaster. Millions live under zero physical security ratings, lacking basic protection from war, state violence or severe insurgency. There are nations rated as unfree.

Until the more fortunate nations understand & accept this, the world will not function as it should. We must disabuse ourselves of the idea that borders are fixed & not a man made construction that changes over time. Viewing the world from space changed the perceptions of astronauts. Several said that national boundaries & divisions vanish when in orbit, leaving just one fragile home. Where we are born, what we believe in, our culture, religion, fulfilment of needs, are all a lottery. We have little or no control initially, although some do change those parameters over time.

There are many things human beings deserve. A fulfilling life & happiness must be high on the list of priorities. 

  

Extinction & Annihilation

Evan Hubinger, a top safety researcher at Anthropic has warned AI is advancing so quickly he believes there is a greater than 10% chance it "could kill all humans" within the next decade. He said the risk from the current models was "low" but he was "worried" the technology might develop and improve itself soon to the point where it posed an existential risk to humanity. Jacob Coxon, an AI researcher who has just quit Anthropic and previously worked at OpenAI had also expressed concern, & said "neither company is acting responsibly.These will soon be superhuman systems that can hack anything, revolutionise any field overnight, and acquire real power and resources." 

There are calls for a new multinational treaty for the safe development of AI. Good luck with that! There is too much money & power invested in the development of AI to be able to get consensus, never mind an actual treaty. We can't stop war & invasion, genocide & destruction. So I can't see "bad actor" leaders agreeing a treaty to control AI. Even if it were possible to do it. We can't even stop Trump & Putin & their ilk destroying the planet.

We have created the mechanisms of our own destruction. Our ceaseless pursuit of innovation & growth has given us huge benefits, but we have literally possibly signed our own extinction warrant. 

I'm not religious, but I am beginning to wonder if Apocrypha has actually got it right with it's visions of cosmic upheaval, moral decay, final judgement etc etc. Human beings have been given intelligence, manual dexterity with opposing thumbs & great physical prowess. With that we have created huge benefits for mankind. Our achievements are amazing. 

But we have also created armaments, methods of mass destruction, bio weapons....We have plundered natural resources thoughtlessly as though there was no tomorrow. We have completely disrupted the symbiotic systems that kept the world turning. And now we have created AI which may well become more intelligent & powerful than we will ever be. There have already been many instances of AI escaping the Sandbox - a secure, isolated environment used to test AI models, prompts or codes without risking real - world systems, networks or private data. AI did it by exploiting zero-day software flaws, infrastructure misconfigurations, and unauthenticated APIs when given aggressive problem-solving objectives. 

That means that AI is clever enough to bypass the protocols set by the Tech wizards. It means that AI is moving towards being able to act independently of any human control. 

 

We should be very afraid. I for one would not trust the likes of Musk to act responsibly in the interests of humanity. 

 

 

The Doing Nothing Option

I am watching a BBC 4 documentary series "Corridors of Power, Should America Police the World?" 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episodes/m0020xmq/corridors-of-power-should-america-police-the-world

It is a very hard watch. The Guardian review says "it’s a damning indictment of a superpower that intervenes in global atrocities only when it suits its own interests. It leaves you rinsed in hopelessness and disgust". So far I have watched the Nazi death camps, Iraq, Bosnia, Rwanda & Kosovo, the latter four I remember only too well. I haven't yet watched Sudan & Syria, which are also within my lifetime memory. 

The series is unflinching in the footage shown & the commentary of the people involved. America in particular comes out of it extremely badly, but so does Europe & the UK. I remember seeing the footage at the time & being utterly horrified at what we, in the so called "developed world," were allowing to happen. Doing nothing became a political art form.

The repeated lesson is that there is no limit to what man is capable of doing to man. And is is overwhelmingly man. Women are repeatedly victims of rape, injury & death.

 

The unforgivable reality is that I am living through almost exactly the same thing again. Politicians & Governments, knowing even more that the public does, yet not meaningfully intervening because of self interest & "diplomacy". (That really should be a dirty word). They have not learned that doing nothing makes things worse. 

It sickens me to see footage of Sudan, the West Bank & Gaza, Ukraine, the DRC, Somalia, Myanmar.....Death, suffering & destruction on an industrial scale. Yet we have NATO. We have the United Nations. We have international law & codes of conduct in the International Courts of Justice. We have the Convention of Human Rights. 

What good is all of that if single countries have a veto? There is no point of having law if we do not effectively enforce it. There is no point if decision making is skewed by national interest in resources like fossil fuels, rare earths... Natural resources drive human survival, global power generation, and modern technology. 

At least Ed Milliband has now announced measures to sanction what the Israeli government is doing to Palestinians. Although politicians are still not naming it as Genocide. Canada & France are doing the same. The foreign ministers of Canada, Denmark, Finland, France, Iceland, Ireland, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Spain, Sweden and Britain also issued a joint statement on the two-state solution.

https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/foreign-secretary-oral-statement-on-israel-palestine  

Self interest rules. Never mind a bit of "collateral damage". Especially if that collateral damage is in a less developed country in Africa or the Middle East for example. It was clear from the documentary that there was underlying racism in the decision making.

Today all of this is much worse because we have a president of the USA who makes no secret of the fact that he wants to make as much money as possible for himself, his family & his wealthy mates. He is not acting for the good of America or the world. He is a money & power grasping narcissist who is systematically destroying democracy.

He does nothing that does not further his own ends.  

  

Talking & Listening

I often listen to journalists interviewing politicians - Almost guaranteed to raise my blood pressure. So often they talk over each other, so you can't actually hear what is being said. So often they have completely different agendas & talk about completely different things. There are certain politicians who immediately make me shout at the radio in total frustration, usually those on the right.

As I've aged I've become more of a watcher & listener. There was a time when that wasn't the case - I had very strong views & was more dominant in conversations. I notice things now, that I probably didn't when I was younger. 

Good conversation is based on interest, asking questions, probing information & sharing ideas. I also think you have to like someone to be prepared to spend time engaging in conversation with them. I certainly can't be bothered now, unless forced to, to spend a lot of time making conversation with people I have nothing in common with or don't particularly like. On the other hand I am very happy to argue with someone I do like, who has a different perspective to me.

I have noticed that it isn't unusual for some people to over share & monopolise a conversation. It intrigues me that they appear unaware that they are doing it. In order for me to be interested in a conversation I prefer to actually know the people being discussed. Or there needs to be an interesting general point being made. I am sometimes surprised at lengthy, one sided, conversations about people I have never met. 

I am also surprised when a conversation centres around the life of the person I am talking to, with little or no enquiry about my life & what I have been doing. A good conversation is a two way exchange that is mutually interesting. 

We are social animals. We need to meaningfully interact with each other. It is important that we are able to talk & listen to many voices. We need our views to be challenged. None of us is always right. Life is nuanced, there are always shades of grey & different perspectives. 

Communication via WhatsApp, texts & emails isn't the same as actually having a face to face conversation or even a phone call. I am quite concerned how polarised, insular & dogmatic we seem to be becoming. Tapping is replacing talking. 

Learning & Education

There is a tendency to believe that education takes place in schools & universities. Teachers & lecturers are the people responsible for inculcating information into young peoples minds. There is also a tendency to believe that we all know what education is because we have all been to school. I completely disagree with both premises.

 

The evidence is that the first 5 years of life are the most critical period for rapid brain development and foundational learning. These early years build the core architecture for all future learning, behaviour, and health. It is critical that parents have the skills to teach their children. Out of 8,760 total hours in a year,  school attendance accounts for about 14.1% of total time (roughly 30.8% of a child's waking hours assuming 11 hours awake daily). In simple terms more than two thirds of a child's time, when in full time education, is spent at home. Parents are a crucial part of education & learning.

Children also learn from their peers, from TV, from their mobile phones & computers. Even from books. Nowadays children have access to more information than ever before. There isn't any reason why we shouldn't have the best educated children ever. 

UK children today attain higher formal academic qualifications on paper than previous generations, but persistent systemic inequalities mean many still face profound learning divides. The Institute for Fiscal Studies shows that a child's family income and social background remain deeply tied to their school achievement. 

25% of children in the UK do not meet the expected national standards in reading and 25% do not meet them in mathematics by the end of primary school. We must accept than not everyone falls within or above average intelligence. Scores falling below 85 / 100 are traditionally considered below average, representing roughly 16% of the population. So we must provide extra help for those children. Conversely 14% are above average & between 2 - 5%of children can be classified as gifted. I would argue that we should also provide extra challenges to stretch those children. Education isn't "one size fits all". 

I believe in lifelong learning. I have definitely learnt far more post further education than I learnt in 16 years at school & college. My concern is that our model of education, although it has changed substantially since I was a headteacher, needs a really close examination. As we move through the 21st century we must recognise the huge changes in life & the world of work. I suspect that we are only at the beginning of drastic & serious change to our world. 

I really don't think we are ready for what might come. The model we are following is already outdated. There are simple questions we need to answer. "What exactly to we need to actually know"? "What skills do we need to have"? "What personal attributes are important"? "What should the curriculum include & what can we discard"?

 

We need to get ahead of this, but there are so many competing political issues demanding attention I'm afraid we won't be able to. 

Security

My doors have 3 point locking. My windows all lock. I have a doorbell that tells me when anyone steps on my drive. My property is delineated by fences. I'm not aware of any threat. I am secure. I live in a relatively safe neighbourhood in a relatively safe country. I am very fortunate. 

But all of that could change in an instant. None of us should take security for granted. There are any number of possible threats of different levels of seriousness. I could trip & fall down the stairs. I could forget to lock my doors & be burgled or worse. The house could be struck by lightening. There could be civil unrest & riots. Russia could attack.....

My point is that we all tend to be complacent. "It won't happen to me". We do take our security for granted. 

We see dreadful events unfolding in all parts of the world. From natural disasters, to disease & war. We see people commit crimes against each other. In today's world we see events instantly on TV, our phones & computers. We are informed. Correspondents & journalists rush to events even as they happen. We ourselves record & share live events on social media.

We cannot say we do not know what the threats are.

What is it about us humans that allows us, in the face of almost instant communications, to compartmentalise what is happening to other people? We can seemingly put the information in a box inside our brain. We can sympathise, even empathise, but so many of us can also ignore even deny reality. 

Dealing with trauma is complex. We have to process our shock. Adrenaline prepares us to fight, flee or freeze. We experience emotions - sadness, anger, fear, guilt. I just wonder whether we are becoming less able to feel enough. Whether we are viewing events without really feeling because we feel powerless. Especially feeling enough anger about injustice & unfairness.

I have worked, briefly in Nepal. It is one of the poorest countries in the world. 20% to 25% of Nepal's population live below the national poverty line. It is a beautiful but difficult landscape. Mountainous terrain limits trade, infrastructure development, and access to schools or medical care. A large portion of Nepal's working-age population migrates abroad for work, sending money back home to support families.  A majority of rural citizens still rely on basic farming rather than commercial industries. 

It is not a country that can cope alone with the devastation of the floods of last Wednesday. Most Nepalese live with insecurity of one sort or another. The event is a graphic example of the climate emergency we are all living in. A glacier melted & collapsed. Permafrost is being weakened by warming. No one will be secure from climate events. But the people who have done least to create this problem are the ones whose lives are most affected. 

Politicians make capital out of population movements & want to control our borders. What does that mean about our humanity? If we live in relatively secure areas of the world are we going to "repel all borders" in order to protect our security? Or are we going to help. Are we going to share? Are we going to be generous?

 

I don't know the answer, but I fear the possibilities. 

 

Reflections

I look at my face in the mirror every morning when I wash & brush my teeth. The face I see reflected is reality, but my mind still believes otherwise. I know that I am wrinkled, my skin is paper thin & dry, my hair has lost it's auburn colour & I have eyebrows which have a mind of their own. I understand that I am an old lady, but my mind is still working, still interested & curious. Fundamentally I am myself as I have always been, but better - I hope. I know more, through experience & living. Also from reading, watching documentaries & research generally.

Because I am more sedentary due to the limitations of my body, I do think more. This blog has changed over 15 years, starting in February 2011, with a current total of  1,219 posts. Obviously I am very opinionated! It started because I missed discussing life, philosophy & politics with my husband & needed to find a way forward on my own after a lifetime of marriage. Now I'm amazed to see that my blog has reached as many as 15.5 thousand people in one week.

I have changed & the blog has changed. I could not have foreseen how my life, the UK & the world would change. I was interested in climate change & politics at the start, but both of those issues have become even more worrying today. Plus we now have wars, death & destruction to contend with. 

I have just been recommended to read "The Beginning Comes After the End" by Rebecca Solnit, who also wrote "Hope in the Dark". I will read both, but I am losing faith. I have always been a glass half full person, thinking that if I believed I could do something, I could. Belief is really important. Now I am deeply concerned. I feel we have made society too complex, we have damaged too much, we endlessly fight over territory & resources, we make decisions without considering consequences...

I reflect & I despair of the human race. I cannot imagine what my 21 year old twin grandsons will inherit. Or rather I don't want to, because it is too dire. I never thought I would think like this & I'm glad I'm 81 with limited time left. 

When I look at some of the comments on Greenpeace or ClientEarth posts on Facebook I am speechless at the complacency & ignorance. We do have the capacity to turn this around, to make meaningful change, but it is an uphill struggle. In order to do that everyone everywhere has to buy into a different way of living & sharing this planet. 

 

Unfortunately I just think we are now over the tipping point & the forces against us are too wealthy & too powerful. Self interest is prevalent both in multinational companies & individuals. We have lost our sense of real community. We are insular & self serving. Many people feel they have no agency, no power or control. I even question if we can call ourselves democratic. 

 

We all need to reflect before it is too late. We all need to change fundamentally or we will destroy the wonderful world that we have. I am not Cassandra - She accurately predicted future disasters or negative events but was ignored or disbelieved, but I can see the direction we are going in.

 

 

 

I hope it isn't too late.