War & Geography

I am a big fan of Tim Marshall a British journalist & broadcaster. In particular his books "Prisoners of Geography"- 2015 & "The Power of Geography"- 2021. The former book's 6th chapter deals with the Middle East. The latter book's 2nd chapter is Iran. It's a shame that Trump & Netenyahu didn't read that before they embarked on their illegal war with Iran. Iran is mostly mountains & deserts. That makes a land war really difficult. But thuggish leaders don't tend to fight that kind of war now. They use drones & missiles.

The Gulf of Hormuz at it's narrowest is just 34 km across. The width of the actual shipping lane is just over 3 km. This means that Tehran can threaten to close it to everyone else, as Marshall pointed out in his book. "One fifth of global oil supplies pass through it, (so) closure would mean a world of pain".  We are in that world of pain because that is exactly what Tehran has done, very effectively & predictably. If Marshall knew that in 2021 why didn't Trump & Netenyahu & their acolytes?  

Surely they did, or someone advising them did. But they chose to ignore it. They chose to mount a war they couldn't actually win. They chose to invade a country without any legal reason to do so. They chose to kill & maim innocent civilians & destroy the infrastructure of a country. Why? Simply because they could. 

Men who have no moral compass. No conscience. No care for the pain & suffering they cause. Egotistic men who crave power & money. Men consumed by hubris, self confidence & deluded self belief in their own importance. Both men trying to evade justice & the legal system for crimes they are accused of committing. I don't know what the psychological definition of their personality types is, but it isn't anything good in a leader of a country.

Meanwhile the world looks on watching the devastation in so many places in our world today. Ukraine, Gaza & the West Bank, Iran.....Seemingly politics & politicians are helpless. The United Nations, what a misnomer, is unable to act because of veto's. But at least Guterres does speak out eloquently & compellingly. It all reminds me of the Jugoslav Wars between 1991 - 2001. History repeating itself as usual.

We humans seem to learn nothing. We just keep repeating the same mistakes & let tyrants win. Where is Democracy? Where is Justice? It isn't here now.  

 

Renewal, Religion & War

Easter is an important festival for Christians. It happens when spring is in full blossom & is a symbol of renewal for many, even if, like me, they are not believers. Hindus have the festival of Holi which celebrates the victory of good over evil among other things. Jews have Passover which commemorates liberation from slavery. The Persian new year, Nowruz, is the rebirth of nature. Buddhists have Songcran new year which symbolises purification.....

Yet at this wonderful time of year, when everything is literally springing into life, death & destruction is marching through huge areas of the world. In many cases not literally marching, because war today is death fought like a computer game, by missiles & drones. You don't have to look your victims in the eye & experience actually killing them. You do it from a bunker or from behind your own lines. You are removed from the reality of actually taking a life, seeing the blood, seeing the spirit depart, seeing the injury you have inflicted.

All of this at the behest of despotic & deranged leaders, who often claim some sort of religious belief, like Trump, Putin & Netenyahu. Weirdly they claim belief in Christianity, Orthodoxy & Judaism. Three religions with basically the same fundamental beliefs. All are monotheistic and Abrahamic. Anyone claiming to believe in god is also held to the same necessity to behave in a morally good way. The commandments of Christianity for example. Thou shall not kill & Thou shall not bear false witness spring to my mind. All 3 of these leaders routinely break those commandments. Shame on them.

If there is some spiritual being, some presence outside of our understanding, these men will surely face some sort of judgement & punishment. I sincerely hope they do, although I cannot imagine what punishment fits their dreadful crimes against humanity & our beautiful planet. 

Spring reminds us all that there is the possibility of renewal. It arrives every year & is an opportunity to reflect. I don't have much hope that the truly morally deficient leaders in our world will take the opportunity to reflect & be renewed in a better way. But I do hope that the people everywhere who oppose them & what they stand for will find the courage to oppose them & bring them to face justice. 

Having a Voice

Being a teacher means that I used my voice a lot & also was often exposed to childrens infections. Every time I got a cold it turned into something worse, laryngitis, strep throat, bronchitis, pneumonia & pleurisy. Even now I'm retired I don't seem to be able to just get a cold & I often lose my voice. As I live alone & don't talk to myself much - yet, it isn't a huge problem. 

But communicating & speaking is an important part of our lives. Our relationships & our work lives depend on it. Today we can communicate through other means, text & email for example. But they are open to misinterpretation in a way that speech isn't, because there are context clues with speech - tone of voice, facial expression & body language for example.

However that isn't really what I'm thinking of in this post. I'm thinking of the voice that we each have to influence other people & big decision making. I think that we forget that our individual opinion can be really important in the areas of politics & philosophy. If we speak out individually in social contexts we may or may not influence what others think. But if we disagree with a point of view I feel that it is important to be able to express it. Unfortunately it is often the case that we don't speak out for fear of offending or upsetting others. Or we just aren't confident or brave enough. But letting an unacceptable point of view pass is colluding with the speaker. It's actually cowardly.

People have fought for the rights of free speech. People have fought for the right to vote. People have fought for the right to be part of a collective like a union or professional organisation. One voice in the wilderness may not have much of an impact. But protests & marches can be powerful demonstrations of a groundswell of opinion that should not be underestimated. That is how change for the better happens. Think of Votes for Women, LGBT rights, Grenfell & safer Homes, the Right to Roam, Apartheid, Fracking....

Our right to protest, which is central to a healthy, functioning democracy, is under threat. The police have huge powers to restrict protests and arrest demonstrators under the Crime and Policing Bill.

https://www.libertyhumanrights.org.uk/issue/eight-repeat-protests-that-achieved-change/

Having a voice & using it is very important. Use it or lose it. Losing your voice means far more than being dumbstruck. It means losing your power to affect change for the better.

 

Civil War?

Yesterday I went to a discussion about the possibility of Civil War between Profs David Betz & Jonathan Portes as part of the Oxford Literary Festival. I found the former cogent & compelling & the latter surprisingly poor & arrogant.

I remember clearly the discontent & violence of the 60's - 80's. 

I think the 60's was the start of  profound social, economic, and political tensions that signalled a breakdown in traditional social norms and trust in authority. There was industrial unrest & economic weakness, declining trust in government, race & immigration tension, class divide & social inequality among others. Does that ring any bells?

The 70's brought all of that plus inflation near 30%. Resulting in the "winter of discontent" in 1978 / 79 with widespread strikes, a 3 day working week, rubbish not being collected & energy shortages - The lights literally went out. 

The 80's heralded huge economic & political divisions & Thatchers conservative government, with a decline of traditional manufacturing, mass unemployment, industrial conflict, and severe urban unrest. Not to mention privatization selling off so much of our infrastructure & services. The miners strike of 1984 / 5 was a bitter industrial dispute handled very confrontationally by the government & the police. That was so bad that there is finally going to be an official inquiry into the violent policing at Orgreave. Then there was the Poll Tax riots & the inner city riots in Brixton, Toxteth, Handsworth, (which I knew well) & Moss Side.

So, no one can tell me that civil war can't happen here. All of that laid the foundations for the society we live in today. But all of the metrics have got worse.

 

But there are significant differences that also make the situation worse.  I will just make 2 points. 

There is universal distrust of politicians & politics in general, with good reason. It is arguable that we do not have a functioning democracy & the complexity of governing has increased exponentially, requiring a cadre of very experienced & skilled leaders that are markedly absent. The 3 party system is past it's sell by date.

We live in a age of rapid communication. We all have powerful computers literally in our hands. We have instantaneous access to both reliable & unreliable information. It is difficult to differentiate between truth, lies & conspiracy theory. Equally it is easy to whip up discontent & anger & organise protests which can easily turn violent. 

I really hope that the curtailment of the right to protest & aggressive policing epitomised by "kettling" is not used to address the discontent evident between the "have's" & the "have not's". But I fear that we are in danger of ignoring the indicators that things are seriously unacceptable to so many people. I can envisage rioting & civil war because I have seen the foundations laid.

That is, of course, if we don't find ourselves in a 3rd world war. 

Keeping Calm & Carrying On?

The balance between keeping well informed on world events & seriously worrying about the consequences of the self serving behaviour of some countries leaders is difficult. Personally I think that Trump, Netenyahu & Putin should be indicted & hopefully found guilty & imprisoned. I know that I am judging before hearing all the evidence & argument. But I look at verified sources &  having been a Magistrate for many years, I feel that the evidence is overwhelming. Beyond reasonable doubt. 

The people of the world are facing real harm caused by these men. Everything from death & injury, to loss of their homes & infrastructure, & at the other end of the scale a huge increase in the cost of living. Millions of people are adversely affected worldwide. We in the UK are fortunate, we aren't in the firing line, we just have to face increased costs & shortage of supply.

But it may not end there. I have listened to several respected sources, senior military people, politicians & commentators & the possible outcomes are truly dire. At one end of the scale the civil war risk in the UK is rising due to heightened social tension, economic strain, and polarization, with some experts projecting a potential 18.5% chance over five years. 40-53% of people in Western nations view world war as likely in the next 5-10 years. Former NATO deputy commander Richard Shirreff has warned that the current U.S. - Israel conflict with Iran could be the "final catalyst" for a third world war. We are thought to be in a second cold war fought through regional conflicts, proxies, and cyber attacks. Military analysts and historians warn that the international order is under "considerable strain". 

It is a bleak picture. We live in a very unstable & unpredictable world that has some power & wealth hungry men in charge. 

So what can individuals do? We are not without power. We need proactive, sustained action by individuals to reduce political polarization, mitigate inequality, and foster communication across divides. We need an intelligent & rational response by the masses to counter the actions of the few who have no regard for human rights or fairness. We need to stand up to bullies & challenge extremism in all it's forms. We need to be very selective about our use of media in all it's forms. 

Most of all we need to use our "democracy" & use our vote to elect principled leaders & hold them accountable. We need to ensure good civic education of our young people & support fairer electoral reform. We need to be empathetic towards the disposessed & treat others with respect, regardless of their nationality, race, or religion. We need to reduce economic inequality.

We, the population need to organise & use our power to ensure that the "bad actors" do not escape. We need to keep calm & carry on. ( 1939 catchphrase) 

 

Or we will deserve everything that we get & it will not be pleasant.  

Fiscal Debt & Quantitative easing.

Fiscal debt (FD) and quantitative easing (QE) are

closely linked through a central bank's purchase of government bonds (gilts), which effectively swaps long-term, fixed-rate government debt for short-term, variable-rate central bank reserves. High debt-to-GDP ratios are projected to hit 105% in developed markets by the end of 2026.

The UK has run a national debt for most of the last 300 years to fund wars, beginning in the 1690s. Debt has reached peaks above 200% of GDP after major wars.  It reached roughly 250% of GDP in 1946–47 following World War II. Debt-to-GDP fell steadily from the 1950s, reaching a low of 24% in 1991–92.

The Bank of England was founded specifically to manage a £1.2 million loan to the government. There have been brief periods of budget surpluses—years where it earned more than it spent, under both Thatcher's & Blair's governments. We used to have significant gold reserves. Not now. More than half was sold off at historically low prices between 1999 & 2002. Personally that seems to me a major financial mistake.

I wouldn't run my personal life on the basis of FD & QE, so am at a loss to understand the massive debt we have got ourselves in. So who pays the price of all this - taxpayers, users of services & future generations. In other words you & me & our children & grandchildren. A significant portion of the debt is owned by UK pension funds, insurance companies, and banks, meaning the state owes the debt to people in the UK. Outcomes include rising costs & inflation.

Is the UK bankrupt? Well some say yes & some say no. Some commentators highlight the risk of a "sovereign debt crisis" or "running out of money. Others argue a sovereign nation issuing its own currency cannot go bankrupt. Personally I can only relate all of this to my situation & it doesn't stack up. Politicians & financiers deliberately use euphemisms & obscure language to confuse & obfusticate. If they told us the truth in plain English I might believe they knew what they were doing. So I'm deeply cynical.

 

If we can only keep going by borrowing more are we bankrupt?  I won't be paying the price, but my Grandchildren will. So will yours.  

Questions & Answers

I had a cold phone call about my energy. Within seconds I registered that it was a cold call & told the woman I wasn't interested & hung up. My brain filtered, reacted & made me speak appropriately in a few seconds. That is amazing computing power. Especially as my brain has been around for decades, so it's surprising it's still working.

The human brain reaction time averages 0.25 secs for visual stimuli,0.17 secs for audio, and 0.15 secs for touch. The total time to perceive, process, and respond to a stimulus, typically ranging from 0.1 - 0.3 secs. Age, fatigue, exercise, and stimulus complexity influence speed.

 

Given how lucky we are to have powerful brains it is amazing how prone we are to making mistakes. We are fallible. All sorts of factors come into play. 

A combination of psychological, social, and situational factors shape how choices are evaluated. Key factors include cognitive biases, emotional state, risk propensity, personal values, social pressures, time constraints, and the availability of information

. 

 

Each day we make decisions, even down to what socks to put on. Each day we have complex conversations, social, at work, in a shop, on a phone...Our brain is always working. If someone asks me a question I don't know the answer to, I can usually find out the answer. I just have to check that I am using a verifiable source, there is so much misinformation out there. So many unreliable outpourings of information without evidence from spurious sources.

 

It is worth taking the time to think about important questions - "knee jerk" reactions are not usually the best. I would always try to go for due consideration over speed. Speed without consideration doesn't usually result in reliable choices & decisions.

 

I think that is becoming a real problem for politicians & people making decisions that affect all of us. We aren't prepared to give them time to formulate answers to very complex problems. We are also very intolerant of mistakes. We don't like it if they change their minds. They in turn are becoming more and more wary of answering direct questions & committing themselves to a course of action or an opinion.

 

Truth is important, but it becoming increasingly difficult to find. However, you have been given a brain & access to reliable, evidence based, information, so use it. Don't just follow the herd or the charismatic leader or influencer who shouts loudest.