Civil War?

Yesterday I went to a discussion about the possibility of Civil War between Profs David Betz & Jonathan Portes as part of the Oxford Literary Festival. I found the former cogent & compelling & the latter surprisingly poor & arrogant.

I remember clearly the discontent & violence of the 60's - 80's. 

I think the 60's was the start of  profound social, economic, and political tensions that signalled a breakdown in traditional social norms and trust in authority. There was industrial unrest & economic weakness, declining trust in government, race & immigration tension, class divide & social inequality among others. Does that ring any bells?

The 70's brought all of that plus inflation near 30%. Resulting in the "winter of discontent" in 1978 / 79 with widespread strikes, a 3 day working week, rubbish not being collected & energy shortages - The lights literally went out. 

The 80's heralded huge economic & political divisions & Thatchers conservative government, with a decline of traditional manufacturing, mass unemployment, industrial conflict, and severe urban unrest. Not to mention privatization selling off so much of our infrastructure & services. The miners strike of 1984 / 5 was a bitter industrial dispute handled very confrontationally by the government & the police. That was so bad that there is finally going to be an official inquiry into the violent policing at Orgreave. Then there was the Poll Tax riots & the inner city riots in Brixton, Toxteth, Handsworth, (which I knew well) & Moss Side.

So, no one can tell me that civil war can't happen here. All of that laid the foundations for the society we live in today. But all of the metrics have got worse.

 

But there are significant differences that also make the situation worse.  I will just make 2 points. 

There is universal distrust of politicians & politics in general, with good reason. It is arguable that we do not have a functioning democracy & the complexity of governing has increased exponentially, requiring a cadre of very experienced & skilled leaders that are markedly absent. The 3 party system is past it's sell by date.

We live in a age of rapid communication. We all have powerful computers literally in our hands. We have instantaneous access to both reliable & unreliable information. It is difficult to differentiate between truth, lies & conspiracy theory. Equally it is easy to whip up discontent & anger & organise protests which can easily turn violent. 

I really hope that the curtailment of the right to protest & aggressive policing epitomised by "kettling" is not used to address the discontent evident between the "have's" & the "have not's". But I fear that we are in danger of ignoring the indicators that things are seriously unacceptable to so many people. I can envisage rioting & civil war because I have seen the foundations laid.

That is, of course, if we don't find ourselves in a 3rd world war. 

Keeping Calm & Carrying On?

The balance between keeping well informed on world events & seriously worrying about the consequences of the self serving behaviour of some countries leaders is difficult. Personally I think that Trump, Netenyahu & Putin should be indicted & hopefully found guilty & imprisoned. I know that I am judging before hearing all the evidence & argument. But I look at verified sources &  having been a Magistrate for many years, I feel that the evidence is overwhelming. Beyond reasonable doubt. 

The people of the world are facing real harm caused by these men. Everything from death & injury, to loss of their homes & infrastructure, & at the other end of the scale a huge increase in the cost of living. Millions of people are adversely affected worldwide. We in the UK are fortunate, we aren't in the firing line, we just have to face increased costs & shortage of supply.

But it may not end there. I have listened to several respected sources, senior military people, politicians & commentators & the possible outcomes are truly dire. At one end of the scale the civil war risk in the UK is rising due to heightened social tension, economic strain, and polarization, with some experts projecting a potential 18.5% chance over five years. 40-53% of people in Western nations view world war as likely in the next 5-10 years. Former NATO deputy commander Richard Shirreff has warned that the current U.S. - Israel conflict with Iran could be the "final catalyst" for a third world war. We are thought to be in a second cold war fought through regional conflicts, proxies, and cyber attacks. Military analysts and historians warn that the international order is under "considerable strain". 

It is a bleak picture. We live in a very unstable & unpredictable world that has some power & wealth hungry men in charge. 

So what can individuals do? We are not without power. We need proactive, sustained action by individuals to reduce political polarization, mitigate inequality, and foster communication across divides. We need an intelligent & rational response by the masses to counter the actions of the few who have no regard for human rights or fairness. We need to stand up to bullies & challenge extremism in all it's forms. We need to be very selective about our use of media in all it's forms. 

Most of all we need to use our "democracy" & use our vote to elect principled leaders & hold them accountable. We need to ensure good civic education of our young people & support fairer electoral reform. We need to be empathetic towards the disposessed & treat others with respect, regardless of their nationality, race, or religion. We need to reduce economic inequality.

We, the population need to organise & use our power to ensure that the "bad actors" do not escape. We need to keep calm & carry on. ( 1939 catchphrase) 

 

Or we will deserve everything that we get & it will not be pleasant.  

Fiscal Debt & Quantitative easing.

Fiscal debt (FD) and quantitative easing (QE) are

closely linked through a central bank's purchase of government bonds (gilts), which effectively swaps long-term, fixed-rate government debt for short-term, variable-rate central bank reserves. High debt-to-GDP ratios are projected to hit 105% in developed markets by the end of 2026.

The UK has run a national debt for most of the last 300 years to fund wars, beginning in the 1690s. Debt has reached peaks above 200% of GDP after major wars.  It reached roughly 250% of GDP in 1946–47 following World War II. Debt-to-GDP fell steadily from the 1950s, reaching a low of 24% in 1991–92.

The Bank of England was founded specifically to manage a £1.2 million loan to the government. There have been brief periods of budget surpluses—years where it earned more than it spent, under both Thatcher's & Blair's governments. We used to have significant gold reserves. Not now. More than half was sold off at historically low prices between 1999 & 2002. Personally that seems to me a major financial mistake.

I wouldn't run my personal life on the basis of FD & QE, so am at a loss to understand the massive debt we have got ourselves in. So who pays the price of all this - taxpayers, users of services & future generations. In other words you & me & our children & grandchildren. A significant portion of the debt is owned by UK pension funds, insurance companies, and banks, meaning the state owes the debt to people in the UK. Outcomes include rising costs & inflation.

Is the UK bankrupt? Well some say yes & some say no. Some commentators highlight the risk of a "sovereign debt crisis" or "running out of money. Others argue a sovereign nation issuing its own currency cannot go bankrupt. Personally I can only relate all of this to my situation & it doesn't stack up. Politicians & financiers deliberately use euphemisms & obscure language to confuse & obfusticate. If they told us the truth in plain English I might believe they knew what they were doing. So I'm deeply cynical.

 

If we can only keep going by borrowing more are we bankrupt?  I won't be paying the price, but my Grandchildren will. So will yours.  

Questions & Answers

I had a cold phone call about my energy. Within seconds I registered that it was a cold call & told the woman I wasn't interested & hung up. My brain filtered, reacted & made me speak appropriately in a few seconds. That is amazing computing power. Especially as my brain has been around for decades, so it's surprising it's still working.

The human brain reaction time averages 0.25 secs for visual stimuli,0.17 secs for audio, and 0.15 secs for touch. The total time to perceive, process, and respond to a stimulus, typically ranging from 0.1 - 0.3 secs. Age, fatigue, exercise, and stimulus complexity influence speed.

 

Given how lucky we are to have powerful brains it is amazing how prone we are to making mistakes. We are fallible. All sorts of factors come into play. 

A combination of psychological, social, and situational factors shape how choices are evaluated. Key factors include cognitive biases, emotional state, risk propensity, personal values, social pressures, time constraints, and the availability of information

. 

 

Each day we make decisions, even down to what socks to put on. Each day we have complex conversations, social, at work, in a shop, on a phone...Our brain is always working. If someone asks me a question I don't know the answer to, I can usually find out the answer. I just have to check that I am using a verifiable source, there is so much misinformation out there. So many unreliable outpourings of information without evidence from spurious sources.

 

It is worth taking the time to think about important questions - "knee jerk" reactions are not usually the best. I would always try to go for due consideration over speed. Speed without consideration doesn't usually result in reliable choices & decisions.

 

I think that is becoming a real problem for politicians & people making decisions that affect all of us. We aren't prepared to give them time to formulate answers to very complex problems. We are also very intolerant of mistakes. We don't like it if they change their minds. They in turn are becoming more and more wary of answering direct questions & committing themselves to a course of action or an opinion.

 

Truth is important, but it becoming increasingly difficult to find. However, you have been given a brain & access to reliable, evidence based, information, so use it. Don't just follow the herd or the charismatic leader or influencer who shouts loudest. 

 

Trauma & Pain

At some point in our lives we will all experience trauma & pain - Both physical & emotional. Some more than others. I once had to write down all the trauma I have experienced in 81 years It covered both sides of a sheet of A4 - typed! Weirdly I had to keep going back to it & adding things I had missed. Some were surprisingly important, but I hadn't initially remembered them. I later wondered if my brain had put them in a box & hidden them away.

We are shaped by experience. At some point we learn that bad things happen. Initially we may well feel that we cannot cope & be utterly devastated. But eventually the "penny drops" & we understand that trauma can't be avoided, so we have to learn to deal with it. It helps if we are supported by friends & family, but ultimately we have to find the resources within ourselves.

There are millions of people in our world who are dealing with trauma far worse than anything I have faced. People without the basic necessities of life, people living under dreadful repressive regimes, people living with war.....In our relatively safe & comfortable lives sometimes we cannot find it within ourselves to sympathise & empathise enough to not only say we support them, but more importantly take action to aid. 

I watched a Ken Loach film from 2023 - "The Old Oak". I was very moved. It's about a group of Syrian refugees sent to an old mining community in County Durham. The community was devastated by the miners strike & is poor. They didn't know the refugees were coming & were initially hostile & in some cases racist. Both communities were traumatised by life. But gradually the things that were common to both & their innate humanity brought them together. Although it is a sad film, it is very uplifting & has a message we should all hear.

The things we all have in common, whatever our religion or culture, are bigger than the things that divide us. Sadly sometimes we don't seem to be able to see that. We cause eachother trauma & pain because we only see difference. We think our way of doing things & thinking is the only right way. We are deluded. We can be extremely narrow minded & extreme in our views. 

I have reached the point in life where I abhor extremists of any religion or nationality. I see no difference between extreme right wing or left wing politics. I see no difference between extreme Islam & extreme Christianity. We all need to find a middle way rooted in our common humanity. If that means we need to be more tolerant, more willing to share, more willing to distribute wealth & resources more fairly, I'm willing to do that. Farirness is not just an important concept, we need to put it into practice.

 

 Are you? Because if you are not the current instability will only get worse. 

A Difference of Opinion, Mediation & Negotiation

I have always had friends who have had different political opinions to me. Although I have lost friends for various reasons over the years, I don't think I have ever lost a friend because of political differences. It is more likely to have been because of a misunderstanding, or because of something said or done which was unacceptable at the time. Some have just drifted away or moved away. Relationships & people change. 

I think it is important to be able to discuss personal feelings & opinions. Having strong opinions is not a bad thing. "Standing your ground" & "fighting your corner" verbally should be acceptable. What is not acceptable is verbal or physical abuse. Even losing your temper can be a sign of immaturity & weakness. Aggressive shouting means you have "lost the plot". 

I think this holds on a micro & a macro level. In personal & international relationships.

After getting medical retirement in my mid forties I was lucky enough to have several really interesting & challenging volunteer jobs over the next 40 odd years. One was being a mediator for a charity called "Resolve". The training programme was based on the Quaker method & was very good. We mostly dealt with neighbour disputes. I was often surprised how intransigent people could be. I have actually experienced that myself with neighbours. One in particular was actually really intimidating. As mediators we always tried to mediate "face to face". But it wasn't unusual for people to refuse to talk directly to the people they were in dispute with. It depends on the individuals & the conflict. Separate, shuttle meetings are sometimes necessary. 

I watched " The Zero Line" BBC documentary this week. https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m002rxvc

War is always shocking. But this was another level. It showed the lengths Putin & his generals & politicians are prepared to go to in order to fight his illegal war in Ukraine. The senseless brutality of the killing of his own soldiers who do not want to fight is horrific. 

Wars always end in negotiation. No one wins a war. My point is that simply going to war is failure. Failure of listening. Failure of understanding. Failure of seeing someone else's point of view. We are adversarial. The UK justice system & politics are both adversarial. If we want to avoid conflict & war we have to change our attitudes. Everyone has to be prepared to be more inquisitorial. Where there are disputes people need to treat eachother with respect & listen to alternative points of view.

 

The 8th of March was International Womens Day. Before Maggie Thatcher in 1982 & Indira Ghandi in 1971 there hadn't been a woman who started a war since Empress Matilda in the 12th century. Women, by an large, are less aggressive than men. They tend to be caring & concilliatory. 

Until we learn to resolve conflict, respect difference, & mediate or negotiate out of situations, wars will continue. People will die & be mentally & physically injured. Buildings & infrastructure will be demolished. 

It's all such a waste. 

 

Losing my Mind

I once started to write a novel set in a school, (for obvious reasons). It came to nothing. But I remember the opening line - "Here I sit, losing my mind & minding my loss". While I loved teaching, being the head of a very large primary school, 450 children, was stressful. I didn't lose my mind though.

Now, although I don't feel I am losing my mind, I do feel less confident in my memory. I, who was really well organised, who felt on top of a professional job, running a family & home, plus organising holidays & a social life. 

Ageing does that to you. Bits of you wear out. I sometimes think about the amount of data stored in my brain over a period of 81 years. No wonder retrieval is tricky. Then there is the small miracle of a heart beating consistently for all that time - Aided now by a pacemaker & a daily handful of drugs. Not to mention all the other organs in a body. It is a miracle & we shouldn't take it for granted. Especially as life expectancy in the UK has increased by 10 -15 years since I was born.

But we do. We think living is our right. We think we are individually important. We think we will all live to old age. But we are grains of sand on an infinite beach. We are part of a whole, but of little consequence individually. We can all contribute something to the community or society we live in. We are all special in some way, we all have something we are good at. We just need to use what we have been given.

Knowledge is gained cumulatively through endevour & experience. There has to be effort & openness to learn. We are born with huge brain capacity. The popular idea that humans only use 10% of their brain is a myth; we actually use 100% of our brains. Brain imaging technology, such as fMRI and PET scans, show that almost every part of the brain is active over a 24-hour period, even while sleeping. 

 

Age related memory loss is frustrating. But forgetting what you were going to do, someone's name, an appointment, where something is, none of that is as serious as dementia. It is normal. I'm not losing my mind, I'm just misplacing the data temporarily, it usually comes back. If I'm doing a general knowledge crossword I can usually see an image of the answer, but not remember the word. I have a very visual memory. 

It's a case of "use it or lose it". Exercise increases the blood flow to the brain, socialising keeps the mind sharp, doing puzzles, reading & learning new skills & a good diet - all are important for the brain. If you don't want to lose your mind you have to actively stimulate it.

But you also have to give your brain a rest. So I do wonder whether our addiction to the constant stimulation of mobile phones & computers is a good thing. I was on a bus yesterday. Two pram pushing mothers got on. They spent the whole journey scrolling on their phones, not looking at their children. Only one mother spoke to her child - to say "no". Around 37% of children joining Reception in 2025 in the UK were not considered "school ready," an increase from 33% in 2024. I'm not surprised.