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Thursday 12 October 2023

War, Pestilence & Malthus Theory of Population

I did Biology at A Level. Hard work, but fascinating. I remember well the bit about "Malthus Theory of Population". Since then I have become a member of a charity called "Population Matters". That too is facinating & the most reliable source if you really want to understand the complexities & dangers of population growth. https://populationmatters.org/campaign-graphics/

Back to Malthus, who believed that the human population grows more rapidly than the food supply until famines, war or disease reduces the population. He also believed that population growth is exponential but food & resources growth is linear, which triggers catastrophe & population decline, forcing correction back to a more sustainable level. It's the Malthusian Trap.

Does any of this sound at all familiar?

The modern version of this is Galor & Ashraf's theory that as long as higher income has a positive effect on reproduction and land remains a limiting factor in resource production, then technological progress has only a temporary effect on per capita income. While in the short-run technological progress increases income per capita, resource abundance created by technological progress would enable population growth, and would eventually bring the per capita income back to its original long-run level. 

Are you still with me? In simplistic terms humans need war, pestilence & natural disasters to keep the population at a level that our planet can sustain. Because there is no alternative Earth. 

I don't believe in God in the organised religion sense. Religions are too male dominated & hierarchical & have far too much bad stuff to answer for as far as I can see. But I do think that we live in a wondrous, complex, interrelated, biosystem that I can believe didn't just happen on it's own. A system that we are comprehensively damaging to the point of complete destruction of the human place in it.

So I have to wonder is what has been happening since the Arab Spring in 2010 all part of an inbuilt cosmic control system? Our major religions all have something to say about the end of the world. Christianity - Book of Revelation. Hinduism - Vishnu's return to battle evil. In Islam the end of the world is referred to as the Hour. In Judaism the Day of the Lord.

I hope we aren't already in the End Game. But it does seem to me that catastrophic events are arriving fast & furious. At the very least it should be a warning that we heed & take action to control to enable a more equitable sharing of the undoubted gifts we have been given

 

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