Eternal Growth & Wage Increase

I wish I understood more about economics. I hate checking my bank statements & I simply cannot remember numbers. 

I can understand general principles & it seems to me that our politicians base the economics of running a country on ideas that simply don't stack up. I don't accept that it is possible to have eternal growth. Smith, Ricardo & Malthus set out the theory in the 18th & 19th century - "every economy has a steady state GDP and any deviation off that steady state is temporary and will eventually return". The 21st century is a very different place. The Solow Growth Model assumes if we double the level of capital stock and double the level of labor, we exactly double the level of output.

I just don't see much evidence over the period of my life that we can rely on continual economic growth. Any charts you look at show huge fluctuations over the period. It used to be called "boom & bust". It seems reasonable to me that major world events are going to continue to happen & will adversely affect economic growth. We have had numerous such events over my lifetime, but the UK & the world seems to have been extremely unstable for the whole of the period since the Global Finacial Crisis of  2007 - 2008. If we simply look at our personal experience of interest on savings & investments & the value of our property, if we are lucky enough to have them, we can see that huge fluctuations are normal & dependent on situations outside our control. Tell people struggling to heat their homes & feed their families that there is economic growth & see how they respond.

Then there is the whole wages situation. We have been in a period of long & disruptive strikes by people wanting wage increases to bring them back, in real terms, to what they earned years ago. Doctors want 35% for example. The questions are;- 

• Is it realistic for workers to ask for increased salary if productivity & efficiency haven't increased? 
• Also, if wages have reduced in value over time, for real terms increases back to a better economic time?
• Basically, do any workers have a right to expect that their salaries will automatically increase year on year regardless of other factors?

I have to be honest, when I was working I did expect my salary to increase. But shouldn't any increase be relative to productivity, qualifications, skill & experience, effectiveness etc. Shouldn't it be related to the economic realities of the job you do & the overall economic situation of where you live? There are so many variables.

That's why I find economics so difficult to understand. It seems to me we are living in an altered reality. We are not recognising the true factors relative to our individual position in the overarching determinants of what is achievable.

I do believe that workers need unions & professional bodies to represent their interests. I do believe that there should be proper pay negotiation. I also feel that if that negotiation is not carried out in good faith then the ultimate tool is to withdraw labour or work to rule. But I also think that striking is destructive & harmful to both the strikers & the public. It's very adversarial, like going to war. Ultimately in both cases there has to be proper negotiation. There has to be genuine determination to modify the stance on both sides. 

We seem to have reached a point of unrealistic expectations & demands in both Growth & Wages. It isn't doing anyone any good at all & it is harming a lot of people. We are living in constant personal & state debt. We cannot continue to borrow our way out of trouble. Debt has to be repaid eventually. What level of debt will my grandchildren inherit? 

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/uk-government-debt-as-a-percentage-of-gdp-17272016

Travelling & Holidays - What are we seeking?

 In my life I have travelled to;- 

• The Americas - USA, Mexico, Guatemala, Belize & Peru
• The UK - England, Scotland & Wales
  
• Scandinavia - Norway
• Europe - Spain, France, Germany, The Netherlands, Italy, Sicily, Romania, The Czech Republic, Greece & Turkey, the Balearics & Canary Islands
  
• North Africa - Morocco, Tunisia, Libya, Egypt
• Sub Saharan Africa - Ethiopia, Malawi, Kenya
• Middle East - Yemen, Jordan, Syria, Israel, Palestine
• Asia - India, China, Nepal

In some countries I visited several different places at different times. That's a lot of travelling for one person. Most of it will have necessitated flying, sometimes very long haul. 

Because we are so aware of the Climate Emergency I now reflect on why I did it & whether it was worth it. Was the benefit I gained from seeing so many different cultures & the possible cross cultural benefit to other nationalities from meeting me worth the damage tourism does? Were my tourist dollars worth the cost? What was my motivation in going? Was it simply tourism - a holiday away from my normal routine? Was I really seeking enlightenment & knowledge?

I'm not objective enough to know. I would say that there is a difference between travelling & holidaying. In the case of Malawi & Nepal I went there to work for charities. But visiting the other places it was mostly cultural, wanting to see the landscape, archaeology & arts & meet the people to understand that there are different, valid, ways to live. Although I have never been a beach holiday person, there were also times I went away to relax, often on walking holidays getting out into the landscape.

The thing I now realise is that although we think that holidays are a right, they are, in fact, selfish. More so now that we do know the harms that tourism does. I know people who are like birdwatching "Twitchers" who have lists of places that they basically simply want to "tick off". They are seeking diversion, distraction, new experiences away from their normal lives. Some people are seeking to leave their daily problems behind, not realising that most problems stay within us. 

 

I'm sure that not everyone is like that. Many travel for knowledge & to broaden their horizons. But I wonder whether we can justify that any more. There are positive & negative effects.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impacts_of_tourism

In 1950 there were 25 million international tourist arrivals. By 2030, 1.8 billion tourist arrivals are projected. Negative environmental impacts of tourism are substantial including;- 

• The depletion of local natural resources 
• Pollution and waste problems.  
• Pressure on natural resources through over-consumption, often in places where resources are already scarce. 
• Enormous stress on local land use, which can lead to soil erosion, increased pollution, natural habitat loss, and more pressure on endangered species. 
• These effects can gradually destroy the environmental resources on which tourism itself depends.

We need to re-think our attitude to travel. Not just tourism travel, but all travel. By 2030, a 25% increase in CO2-emissions from tourism compared to 2016 is expected. From 1,597 million tons to 1,998 million tons.

https://www.theworldcounts.com/challenges/consumption/transport-and-tourism/negative-environmental-impacts-of-tourism

 

 

 

Inquiry Culture Shock - Openness or Cover Up

Our record of major incidents requiring a Public Inquiry is truly shocking. Shocking because of the number of Inquiries & the astronomic cost & length of time they take. Shocking because of the lengths people go to to prevaricate & deceive in order to protect themselves & or their organisations.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_public_inquiries_in_the_United_Kingdom 

These are a few that particularly stand out for me.

2011 - Levison Press hacking Inquiry

2012 - Hillsborough Disaster Inquiry 

2015 - Undercover Policing Inquiry

2015 - Child Sexual Abuse Inquiry, which I think was the most expensive & cost over £143,505,910. by 2020 & wasn't complete 

In 2020 three ongoing public inquiries which had been running for over five years had each cost over £14 million.

2017 - Grenfell Tower Inquiry 

2021 - Covid 19 Inquiry

2021 - Post Office Horizon Inquiry

2024 - Infected Blood inquiry

Between 1990 and 2017 UK governments spent at least £630m on public inquiries. Most public inquiries take at least two years to complete their work. As of August 2023, there were 13 statutory inquiries taking place in England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland.

A statutory public inquiry is usually set up and funded by government but is conducted by an independent body to investigate matters of public concern. Funded by government means that it is paid for by the taxpayer. Inquiries can have special powers to compel testimony and the release of other forms of evidence. But non-statutory inquiries lack the subpoena powers and ability to take evidence under oath that are afforded to statutory inquiries. A public inquiry is expected to report on its findings and make recommendations for improvements in future.

The thing that stands out is that Public Inquiries happen when something is so wrong that a groundswell of opinion & publicity forces a government to act. The default position is to try to cover up. To try to kick the event into the "long grass". It seems that no one is prepared nowadays to admit fault of any kind. Mistakes are not allowed to surface. The goal is to protect the people & institutions that have failed in some way & never mind the huge collteral damage to people & their lives.

It simply is not acceptable. We deserve to have a culture that accepts that mistakes are made by human beings who are never perfect. There should be a culture of full disclosure. Yes people should be held accountable. It may be difficult, but it would be a damn sight quicker, cheaper & more just. If we don't achieve that we are not a democratic & moral society.

Prisoners & Prisons

Not all prisoners are actually in prison. A prison can be your mind, your body or your home.

I have recently chatted to someone who rarely goes out of the house. I regularly chat to people with varying forms of mental illness who are trapped in their memories & beliefs. I know people who have some form of chronic physical illness, which means they are no longer able to do basic things. All of them are prisoners in different ways. Some are not aware that they are imprisoned. Fortunately not all of them feel that they are victims. I know people who have adapted to their limits & live lives that are relatively contented. Certainly ageing means that you need to adapt to a body & mind that is showing signs of normal wear & tear. 

All of that is very different to the lives of people, mainly men, who are incarcerated in an actual prison in the UK. 96% of prisoners are men. England & Wales lock up more people than any other country in Europe. Goodness knows what the stats are in 2024, but I guarantee they are worse.

 

In October 2023 two thirds of UK prisons were overcrowded. That means prisoners sharing cells designed for one, often with a toilet in the middle shielded by a curtain. Reports from the IMB & HM Inspectors of Prisons regularly find that prisons are dangerously overcrowded & conditions are inhumane. 

Judges have been told to delay sentencing. Since October 2023 the End of Custody Supervision Licence Scheme has been used to allow "low-level offenders" to be freed from prisons in England and Wales up to 18 days early under strict supervision. This was extended to 60 days in March 2024 and it is due to be extended to 70 days. What is the point of Courts following sentencing guidelines when the Government reduces sentences properly administered by judges?

I really question how effective our prisons are. Prisons in England ran emergency “red regimes” 22 times last year, after falling below minimum staffing levels. Only a basic regime can be achieved. Prisoners are denied access to work, the library, rehabilitation, exercise, showers or even meals leading to a “culture of hopelessness.” How humane is this, to lock prisoners in cells for close to 24 hours a  day?

I am mindful that, hopefully, people are rightfully imprisoned for comitting crimes & there are victims of those crimes. Violence against the person (VATP) offences were the highest proportion of prisoners in June 2023 (31%). Sexual offences was the second highest category for adults (20%).For juveniles it was drug offences (17%). The top 8 crimes are;-

• Homicide. ...
• Knife or sharp instrument offences. ...
• Offences involving firearms. ...
• Violence. ...
• Domestic abuse and sexual offences. ...
• Theft offences. ...
• Fraud. Estimates for the year ending March 2023 showed 3.5 million fraud offences. ...
• Computer misuse.

These are serious offences, with many victims. 

Can we actually run a humane & effective prison service when many prisons are old & not fit for purpose? 90 prisons were built or added to between 1842 & 1877. 20 prisons were opened in the 60's, 9 in the70's, 13 in the 80s, 16 in the 90s, 7 in the first decade of the new century and four since ...

What do we want to achieve by imprisoning people? Do we think that people who have committed a crime don't deserve reasonable living conditions, food & access to healthcare, exercise & education? Do we want to try to rehabilitate if possible & give people the skills to live as reasonably useful members of society?

Other countries manage to achieve results far beyond what the UK achieves. The Scandinavian countries are widely recognised as having humane & effective prison systems. How can we release prisoners back into the community if we have dehumanised them in a system that is not fit for purpose?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Scams & Scammers

I regularly get Facebook friend requests from supposed American senior military men. Now, I know that I am reasonably intelligent, have a pleasant personality & am outgoing. But I also know that I'm past my "best before" date & I'm not conceited or desperate enough to believe that these men are genuine. Apparently it is a well known scam. https://www.aura.com/learn/military-romance-scams They may be using genuine identities, but they are not who you might think they are. A Google search brought up a huge number of links about this scam.

This is a despicable practice. The scammers target single women, often older, who they hope are lonely & vulnerable. The victims are presumably flattered that someone who is good looking & fairly high up in the services wants to link with them. We all have the capacity to suspend disbelief , especially if our quality of life isn't what we would like. The scammers are clever, manipulative & utterly unfeeling for their victims.

At some point in the "relationship" they will ask for money. This should trigger a healthy dose of scepticism in the victim. But by then they are invested in the "relationship" & want to belive that it is real & loving. If you are a reasonably genuine person you don't want to believe that a) you could be silly enough to fall for this scam & b) that people could be cruel enough to do this.

But they can & do & people regularly fall for it. Sadly not only do people loose quite large sums of money, but their faith in people is utterly destroyed & their confidence in themselves is shattered. It must be heartbreaking for the victims who are left knowing that they have been cruelly conned.

I do use social media, but I don't have hundreds of friends because I do actually know all of my friends. I am secure enough as a person not to feel the need to appear to have a huge & unrealistic friendship group. How did we get to the point where people feel that validation as a person requires masses of "friends" & "likes"? 

Don't even get me started on "Influencers". The clue is in the name. 

What sort of a society are we becoming when our "friendships" are largely on line via Texts, Twitter,  WhatsApps, Emails & Instagrams. No wonder people are having relationships with Robots & AI!

Memory & Memories

When I was a child at Primary school in Birmingham I walked from Higgins Lane to Lapal Canal via Four Dwellings school. I don't remember how I found my way there, but I went alone. I remember a field full of wild flowers that I walked through & swans nesting on the canal. It always seemed to be a sunny day & it was a place of beauty, peace & tranquility. An escape that I loved. That must have been over 60 years ago. No parent would let a young child do that today.

Nowadays a normal conversation opener is "what have you been up to?" My response is usually, I can't remember. I know that I have been busy. I know that my life has meaning, but my short term memory is shot to hell. I rely on several methods of remembering what I have done & will be doing - My phone, a calendar & a wipe clean weekly planner in the kitchen. Without all 3 I would be lost.

I often wonder what the point of doing anything is if I can't remember doing it. But there is a point. I mostly enjoy doing the things I do. I love interactions with friends, family, acquaintances & even strangers. I obviously have to do the mundane things that keep life ticking along, but I am free to go places & see people that give me pleasure & interest me.

I do things daily to aid memory & keep dementia at bay - The Telegraph general knowledge crossword & playing solitaire on my iPad mainly. I definitely have a visual memory rather that a factual one. I can often see the answer to a crossword clue, but not remember the word. I read fiction & non fiction. The problem with fiction is that I forget who the characters are & what they have done. I listen to radio 4 & watch TV. I keep abreast of world events.

Forgetting things is a nuisance, but it doesn't dominate my thinking because I forget that it's a problem! I don't stress about becoming senile. If I have lasted for this long with a reasonably "compos mentis" mind then hopefully I will manage to keep it.

I do find it really interesting that friends & family with whom I have shared memories remember things that I cannot. Even friends who are a similar age to me. I really don't have many memories of my childhood for example, only general recollections. Is that because I have chosen not to remember? Or because I've always had a bad memory?

My constant reponse is that the data is all there, it's just retrieval that's a problem. After all, my brain has been filling up for 7 decades. It's not surprising. I need to free up some space.

Symbiotic Relationships - Living Together

Generally this means a close ecological relationship between members of two (or more) different species in which both species benefit mutually. Parasitism is where one species benefits and the other is harmed. Commensalism is where one species benefits and the other is neither harmed nor helped. Different species often inhabit the same spaces and share—or compete for—the same resources. In simple terms Symbiosis is the art of living together.

People have to live together. They are mutually interdependent. The relationships can be horizontal or vertical. Horizontal is when two or more parties have equal power and responsibility.Vertical is when one party has more power and control over the other party. I leave you to decide which is best & what your relationships are.

In this context we have to consider Love - an intense feeling of deep affection, a positive, reciprocal, symbiotic flow between entities. I can love my child & my dog. I can love more than one person. To love is to care & support. Mutual benefits & aid flow from love. If there is no love or caring then the relationship is not symbiotic. Someone gets the lesser end of the deal. Someone has the upper hand.

Humans also have to live symbiotically with nature. All humans require the benefits of the land, waters and air for survival, making this a commensal symbiosis at best, but often becoming a parasitic symbiosis. Humans cannot exist without the benefits that nature provides. We deplete those resources with our constant demands for more. We are, in effect, doing what the Easter Islanders did creating a barren land that will not support human life. 

Looking at our world today I believe that humans are split into 2 distinct camps. The "Haves" & the "Have Not's". It is obvious at the individual & the collective level. There are people who are totally self absorbed & also those who are empathetic & altruistic. There are the mean & the generous. There are the very rich & the very poor. The polarity has become unacceptable.

I believe we are currently fighting a battle between the two. That battle is at the tipping point. I know which side I want to win, but I am beginning to doubt that we have the capacity to get ourselves out of the mess we have created. Our relationship with eachother & the world we live in is disfunctional & unsustainable.

Toxic Behaviour

Toxic is not a word most people would use to describe people. But maybe it should be. 

Toxic people are self-centered, manipulative, abusive, and lacking in empathy. They drain others' energy by constantly demanding attention, sympathy, or validation. Toxic people tend to disrespect emotional and physical boundaries. Typically they dominate conversation & don't listen to what you have to say. They need a lot of emotional support & don't reciprocate it.

I think, although we may not actually use the word, we would all recognise a toxic person. In the extreme they can create stress and unpleasantness, even emotional or physical pain. Their behaviour adds negativity and upset to your life.

The key is how they make you feel. It's a gut reaction. If someone makes you feel uncomfortable or defensive on a regular basis, if you find it hard to understand their behaviour, if you would prefer to be with someone else, then take notice & do something about it. 

Behaving rationally, we would avoid toxic substances because of the harm they may cause to us. In the same way I think we should avoid toxic people for the same reason, despite the fact that they may well be dealing with their own stresses & traumas. There may also be personality disorders or mental issues.  

Most of us don't have the skills & experience to know how to deal with toxic people. They need professional help, which unfortunately is very hard to find. But we do need to have strategies to be able to cope. 

We should call them out & confront their behaviour. Nothing will change if you don't. It is important to be clear that it is the behaviour that we don't accept, not the person themselves. If we are not prepared to divorce ourselves from the person, we need to set boundaries for the behaviour that is not acceptable to us & limit the time that we spend with them. 

If those strategies don't work then the final option is to move on. Admit that the relationship is draining your resources & nothing has worked. 

It isn't failure. It's self preservation.

 

Planned Obsolescence OR A Circular Economy?

"Designing products to break quickly or become obsolete in the short to mid-term". The general idea is to encourage sales of new products and upgrades to boost profits, a practice that has been banned in some countries, but not in the UK. For example, a cellphone manufacturer may decide to use parts in its phones that have a maximum lifespan of five years, instead of parts that could last 20 years. It is also when spare parts or software updates aren't available, or an item can't be disassembled without destroying it. Changing a battery for example. Naively when I buy an item I imagine the guarantee as the minimum period the item should work for, with the expectation that it may well work for a lot longer. 

In my experience of 79 years, the general rule is that old stuff lasts longer. I imagine that is because of the quality of the raw materials items were produced with & possibly the skill & care workers took in the manufacturing process. I had a John Lewis fridge when I first got married that lasted decades for example. I kept clothes that I loved for years & years. They didn't fade, or fall apart. Seam allowances were sufficient, unlike todays clothes that regularly split.   

My generation valued craftsmanship & durability. We expected things to be worth what we paid for them & to last. That simply isn't true today. Most people expect to replace goods very regularly. They desire the newest iteration of whatever they buy. I didn't expect to change my kitchen units & white goods according to the dictates of fashion. I expected them to last for as long as I lived in the house. I certainly didn't expect to change my phone on a regular basis.

Why on earth have we become such slaves to fashion? 

Electronic waste in particular is becoming a huge issue that now threatens the environment. I remember taking broken electronics to someone to repair or calling someone out to repair bigger items. Nowadays finding someone with the skills is very difficult & expensive. Manufacturers have got away with telling us that it isn't viable to repair stuff. Many electronic components use raw materials that have to be mined & supply is not inexhaustable. This is unsustainable & destructive.

 

There is light on the horizon though. I recently had to change my router. The broadband company I was with, Plusnet, now has free recycling of old routers to recover precious components. I have also taken small electricals to "Share Cafes" locally where volunteers repair all sorts of things. 

This is called a "Circular Economy" - reusing, repairing and recycling existing materials and products whenever possible to extend their life cycle. A model of production and consumption, which involves sharing, leasing, reusing, repairing, refurbishing and recycling existing materials and products as long as possible. The Ellen McArthur Foundation is a charity actively promoting this 

https://www.ellenmacarthurfoundation.org/topics/circular-economy-introduction/overview

We all need to change our attitudes & habits. There isn't much time to get this right.