Sycophants

A person who acts obsequiously towards someone important in order to gain advantage is a sycophant. In simple terms a leech, parasite or a toady. Sycophants are obsequious. They are too eager to help or agree with someone more important than them. As in my favourite Hans Christian Anderson story - The Emperors New Clothes, where the emperor is exposed before his subjects as a vain idiot wearing nothing.

https://andersen.sdu.dk/vaerk/hersholt/TheEmperorsNewClothes_e.html

I imagine, by now, you can see where I'm going with this. Trump is surrounded by sycophants who will tell him what he wants to hear, however bizarre. 

The latest tariff debacle is a case in point. The evidence over decades since the Wall Street crash shows that tariffs do not work. The Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act sparked the crash & everything that followed. Yesterday global stock markets were reeling as the worse-than-expected levies were seen to damage US and global economic growth even as they pushed inflation higher. Tariffs cause recession.

Consumers, both individuals and businesses, are negatively impacted by higher prices. Tariffs reduce demand for foreign goods which negatively impacts relations with other countries. A consumption tax costs less than a tariff if the goal is to lessen consumption of imported goods.

Only 35% of Trump's Cabinet graduated from "elite" institutions, where previous administrations ranged between 52% and 60%. Out of 28 members only 8 have degrees from elite institutions like the Ivy League schools and MIT, Stanford and Oxford. It's a definite shift away from expertise. Scott Bessant the treasury secretary seems well educated & qualified, so it is hard to understand why he would go against the consensus about tariffs. The key qualification is loyalty, which brings me neatly back to sycophants.

Speaking truth to power has never been more important. The capacity for Trump to do real harm internationally on so many fronts is enormous. We really do need world leaders to unite & challenge his unfounded & protectionist policies. America will suffer from them too. 

 

 

 

 

Tariffs & the Free Market

Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum supposedly responded brilliantly to Trumps tariff policy against Mexico. Fact checkers don't seem to be able to verify what is circulating on social media is true. But even if it isn't, it's a brilliant put down & she achieved a months pause in the imposition of tariffs.

A tariff is tax or duty to be paid on a particular class of import or export. The historical consensus is that tariffs raise the price of the goods in the destination country. Near unanimous consensus among economists says that tariffs are self-defeating and have a negative effect on economic growth and economic welfare, while free trade and the reduction of trade barriers has a positive effect on economic growth.  

I will probably never understand economics. But it seems self evident to me that if tariffs are imposed on a country they are going to retaliate. Then there is a self defeating spiral of increased prices. The worst case scenario is a trade war.

Sheinbaums point seems to be that Mexico has a huge population who buy things, many of which come from America. All these consumers have choices & can stop buying American goods because there are always alternatives. The same is true of any country America chooses to target with tariffs. Lets take cars for example. The most popular American cars in the UK are Chevrolet, Dodge, Jeep, & Ford. Instead of buying those we have a huge choice of non American cars. For example - Toyota, KIA, Mazda, Honda, Hyundai, Volvo, Subaru, Renault, or BMW. Many of which out perform American cars. 

Trump, Musk & their largely unqualified appointees don't seem to understand the "quid pro quo" of tariffs. Countries are already retaliating. If they coordinate their actions it will be a very powerful response. There is a groundswell of opinion against Trump policy. Ordinary people are not happy with the aggressive way American politicians are behaving & are boycotting not just American goods, but services too. The "Star Spangled Banner" has been booed. 

Personally I think that the UK is wrong to imagine that we or anyone has a "special relationship" with the Trump administration. Trump is very binary & transactional. He can't be accused of overthinking anything. He simply doesn't factor in cause & effect. So our response, which according to Starmers team is apparently to be “pragmatic” if need be, suggesting he may not retaliate immediately, in the hope of talking Trump round over time and with the aim of creating the conditions for signing a wider UK-US trade deal, doesn't seem emphatic enough to me.

The "Free Market" is an economic system in which prices are determined by unrestricted competition between privately owned businesses. Tariffs are completely counter to that. My only caveat is that there does need to be real competition. Our water industry is privately owned & is a complete mess because there is no competition at all. I have no choice but to get my water from Thames Water. There is no other supplier. So I am forced to pay for their years of mismanagement & lack of maintenance of infrastructure. Their profits have gone to huge salaries & bonuses & shareholders.

The world is paying a price for American "democracy". But I do believe that Americans will eventually realise that the price they pay for electing Trump for a second term will be higher. Goods & services will cost more & huge numbers of American jobs will go. Musks DOGE policy will make thousands unemployed. 

Annoying Filler Words

 The UK’s most annoying filler words:

1. Innit, 47 per cent
2. Like, 32 per cent
3. Basically, 22 per cent
4. Err, 21 per cent
5. You know, 20 per cent
6. Uh, 17 per cent
7. Umm, 15 per cent
8. Yeah, 13 per cent
9. Literally, 12 per cent
10. Oooh, 10 per cent

The UK’s most used filler words:

1. OK, 30 per cent
2. Err, 26 per cent
3. Right, 22 per cent
4. Umm, 20 per cent
5. Actually, 18 per cent
6. Anyway, 16 per cent
7. Basically, 16 per cent
8. Yeah, 14 per cent
9. Like, 14 per cent
10. Really, 13 per cent

The highlighted ones are the ones I most dislike. I would also add My Bad, So & Awesome. I also realise that I use the word "Absolutely" far too much. The sad thing is that repeatedly using these filler words makes people appear less intelligent, less educated and lacking in people skills. Apparently 23% of people don't realise they are using them. I'm surprised that statistic isn't higher. I have at times been tempted to count the number of times I hear people use the word "like" pointlessly in sentences or phrases  - But I do realise that would be a bit anal & weird.

Why do we do it? Why don't we realise that we are doing it? Sometimes, apparently it's to give us time to formulate what we want to say. But I don't think that applies to "like". I also don't think hesitation or uncertainty explains the over use of "like". I just think it's possibly nervousness, lack of preparation, or an  unconscious habit. I just find it really irritating.

We have been given a brain & a wonderful language. Why don't we use them?

Watchers & Doers

Are you a watcher or a doer? Do you live your life vicariously through the lives of others & not actually live your life? Do you let others influence what you think & do? 

I was watching a football match while changing after a swim today. Not much choice, the screen is always on in the pool changing room. It made me think of the fact that we now have wall to wall womens & mens football on TV & thousands of people actually go to matches. 

Then I thought of the plethora of people who watch cookery programmes on TV & buy millions of cookery books.

Its all relatively passive for a lot of people. Approximately 40.7% of male adults and roughly 31.7% of female adults participate in sports on a weekly basis in the UK. The % of physically active adults (19+ yrs) in the UK is 67.1%. Not dire statistics, but not good enough either. Watching doesn't get you fit.

Then there is cooking. Nearly one in five,19%, say they almost always prepare food using basic ingredients, while 23% cook from scratch most days. Another 21% do so a few times a week. A significant portion of the UK population regularly consumes takeaways or supermarket meals, with nearly half of Brits eating takeaway food up to four times a week, and a substantial amount of the population consuming takeaways at least once a week. So why do we buy so many cookbooks? Is it just food porn?

The psychological type of a doer is ESTP according to Myers - Briggs, which stands for Extraverted, Sensing, Thinking, Perceiving. Watchers probably tend to be supporters - they are loyal & have a team approach. There are loads of sites on the web about personality if you are interested.

My point is that although we all have our own distinctive personality, we humans are changing a lot. We no longer live in caves & have to hunt & forage or even farm ourselves. We are all much more sedentary & time poor. We have stopped getting enough exercise to remain healthy & mobile. We have stopped eating a healthy diet that is good for us. As a result we are becoming more & more unhealthy.

In 2022, an estimated 64% of adults in the UK were classified as overweight or obese, with 29% specifically living with obesity. The largest impairment groups in the UK are people with a mobility impairment (48%). Those statistics are ever increasing with the impact on both the NHS & peoples lives.

We are all responsible for ourselves & our families. No one can make us healthy however skilled. I'm sure almost everyone could do something to not only be healthier, but also enjoy actually living life more. Then possibly there wouldn't be such a huge upswing in mental illness. 

In 2023, about 1 in 5 children and young people aged 8 to 25 years had a probable mental disorder. Life expectancy of people with a severe mental illness is about 15-20 years shorter than those without. My generation cannot understand why this is happening. Life has always been problematic - shit happens. Were we more resiliant? If so why? I heard a programme on radio 4 recently postulating that over diagnosis is part of the problem. Simply put, if a medic tells someone they have a medical problem they live their lives accordingly. 

Whatever the truth is - we are not a healthy society & we all need to do something about it.  Life expectancy of people with a severe mental illness is about 15-20 years shorter than those without. 

The largest impairment groups in the UK are people with a mobility impairment (48%)

Tax Should be Taxing

I truly don't mind paying tax. It is important that tax should be commensurate with income though. So I do think that the wealthiest should pay the same proportion of their income as the poor. Most income groups are taxed at 20% in the UK after a tax free allowance of £12,570. (Your allowance is zero if your income is £125,140 or above). If you are better off tax increases, but not proportionately. Over £125,141 you pay 45% 

Countries in Scandinavia pay quite a lot more basic tax & get better services. 

Netherlands – 49% ...

Sweden – 50% ...

Belgium – 53.7% ...

Austria – 55% ...

Denmark – 55.9% ...

Japan – 55.97% ...

Finland – 56.95% ...

Those in the lowest decile of income earners in the UK pay tax at around 44% on their  income and gains in financial wellbeing, whilst those in the top decile pay at 21.5%, less than half that rate. Why? What is the logic?

There isn't any that I can see, other than making the wealthy even more wealthy & the poor poorer. Wealth inequality is ever increasing in the UK. In 2021 the richest 50 families in the UK held more wealth than the bottom 33.5 million people. The wealthiest 1% of households had wealth of at least £3,121,500, while the least wealthy 10% had £16,500 or less. 

That can't be acceptable surely. Nor can placing the biggest tax burden on the least wealthy.There are several arguments -

• Taxing the wealthy excessively could discourage investment, entrepreneurship, and economic growth, potentially leading to job losses and a decline in overall prosperity. 
• High taxes could cause wealthy individuals and businesses to relocate to countries with lower tax rates, leading to a loss of tax revenue and skilled labor. 
• Strong opposition from the wealthy themselves, although there is a group of 250 wealthy individuals, (Patriotic Millionaires), who are actually asking to be taxed.

I struggle to have much sympathy with any of that. The wealthy have advisors who utilise the loopholes in our ridiculously complex tax system to minimise what they pay. The big four accounting firms not only advise taxpayers, they also have their fingers in the pie of advising HMRC. Unbelievably they sit on tax advisory panels and also second staff to government to provide technical advice when tax legislation is amended or created. I simply cannot believe they are impartial & unbiased. Talk about letting foxes into the henhouse.

The whole thing is a mess & it's the majority of ordinary taxpayers who don't get a fair deal.

 

Free Speech & Thought Control

Trump said - “I’ve stopped all government censorship and brought back free speech in America.” Really? Actions mean more than words. He has cut $400m from Columbia University because he wants to stifle criticism of Israel. But the real target is dissent of any sort. Obviously in Trumps world "free speech" means speech he approves of.

In his dystopian novel "1984," Orwell explores the concept of Thought Control through the Party's manipulation of language (Newspeak) and omnipresent surveillance, aiming to eliminate independent thought and maintain absolute power. In Oceania, the Party views any thought that challenges its authority as "Thoughtcrime," punishable by the "Thought Police", who use telescreens, informers, and psychological techniques to monitor citizens. 

Is that ringing any bells? Isn't that what Trump & Musk are actively setting out to do in today's America? 

Voltaire supposedly said "I disapprove of what you say, but I will defend to the death your right to say it" Actually it was paraphrased by Evelyn Beatrice Hall in her Voltaire biography.

In todays world we really need to understand what is at stake in the actions of people like Trump, Musk, Putin, Netanyahu.......They are deliberately undermining truth & freedom. They want us to be subserviant & compliant in order to gain as much power & wealth as they can. Their actions are entirely self serving. It is very dangerous. Over & over history shows us this type of pattern of behaviour by leaders, notably in the rise of the Third Reich. For milennia civilisations have come & gone. Toynbee said that cilvilisations  have a life cycle of four stages: genesis, growth, breakdown, and disintegration. (Read Jared Diamond "Collapse"). It seems to me that we are very close to the final stage if we do nothing.

There are many ways for countries to be governed. Each country has it's own distinct character & culture & within that people vary hugely. Despite all of that difference, every country & it's population must have freedom if they are to survive well for the benefit of everyone. 

We must all be able to think, speak & argue our point of view freely. We must all be open to the idea that we can be wrong & be able to change our opinion. We must all listen to varying points of view & challenge or support where necessary.

If we lose that ability we are lost. 

Funerals & the Big Issue

When you see a "Big Issue" seller on the street do you walk on by as though they don't exist? The chances are you do - Tides of humanity do.

I went to a funeral yesterday in Summertown, Oxford, for one of my local Big Issue sellers Dan Cordas - Cousins. I had known him & his partner Paul for 12 years. We chatted regularly in the street. As did quite a few other Summertown residents. Dan & Paul were, are, an institution. St Michaels church was full. Far more people than expected. Mostly seemingly my age or even older. They ran out of orders of service despite printing 70.

A third of Big issue sellers are homeless. They are not beggars. They are not allowed to beg. They are trying to earn money to live rather than be dependent. We should all respect that.  

The Big Issue used to only be sold on the streets by authorised vendors, but from 2020 it has been sold in some shops in order to raise money because of the effects of Covid. The Big Issue was founded by John Bird & Gordon Roddick in 1991 as a social enterprise. It is a self-sustaining business, generating income through magazine sales and advertising revenue. It gives sellers an income & dignity. Vendors buy the magazine for £2 each and sell it for £4, keeping the £2 profit. In effect vendors are running their own mini business.

For years Dan & Paul were on their pitch daily outside Tesco's in all weathers. Both of them had mobility & health issues. Both of them were mostly surprisingly cheerful. It was always interesting to talk to them. I knew a little of their back story & both had very difficult experiences in their lives, which shaped the lives they lived. The majority of people in North Oxford thankfully have not had to deal with such difficulties, but quite a few of us really valued Dan & Paul.

Dan had health issues for years, but had deteriorated massively over the last year. He died in January. He will be much missed by those of us who took the trouble to talk to him. Paul will find it very difficult to continue without his friend by his side. 

The real Big Issue is how we as a society treat the less fortunate in our country. We could all do better.